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Combining density forecasts using focused scoring rules (replication data)
We investigate the added value of combining density forecasts focused on a specific region of support. We develop forecast combination schemes that assign weights to individual... -
Loss functions for predicted click-through rates in auctions for online adver...
We characterize the optimal loss functions for predicted click-through rates in auctions for online advertising. Whereas standard loss functions such as mean squared error or... -
Efficient estimation of Bayesian VARMAs with time‐varying coefficients (repli...
Empirical work in macroeconometrics has been mostly restricted to using vector autoregressions (VARs), even though there are strong theoretical reasons to consider general... -
Anchoring the yield curve using survey expectations (replication data)
The dynamic behavior of the term structure of interest rates is difficult to replicate with models, and even models with a proven track record of empirical performance have... -
Out-of-Sample Return Predictability: A Quantile Combination Approach (replica...
This paper develops a novel forecasting method that minimizes the effects of weak predictors and estimation errors on the accuracy of equity premium forecasts. The proposed... -
Tests of Predictive Ability for Vector Autoregressions Used for Conditional F...
Many forecasts are conditional in nature. For example, a number of central banks routinely report forecasts conditional on particular paths of policy instruments. Even though... -
Replicating the Results in ‘A New Model of Trend Inflation’ Using Particle Ma...
An article by Chan et al. (2013) published in the Journal of Business and Economic Statistics introduces a new model for trend inflation. They allow the trend inflation to... -
The Contribution of Structural Break Models to Forecasting Macroeconomic Seri...
This paper compares the forecasting performance of models that have been proposed for forecasting in the presence of structural breaks. They differ in their treatment of the... -
Does the option market produce superior forecasts of noise-corrected volatili...
This paper assesses the robustness of the relative performance of spot? and options-based volatility forecasts to the treatment of microstructure noise. Robustness of the... -
Structural break threshold VARs for predicting US recessions using the spread...
This paper proposes a model to predict recessions that accounts for non-linearity and a structural break when the spread between long- and short-term interest rates is the...
