The options chosen are: h = 15.00000000 eps1 = 0.15000000 hetdat = 1.00000000 hetvar = 1.00000000 hetomega = 1.00000000 hetq = 1.00000000 robust = 1.00000000 (prewhit = 1.00000000 ) The maximum number of breaks is: 5.00000000 ******************************************************** Output from the global optimization ******************************************************** The model with 1.00000000 breaks has SSR : 644.99551781 The dates of the breaks are: 79.00000000 The model with 2.00000000 breaks has SSR : 455.95017854 The dates of the breaks are: 47.00000000 79.00000000 The model with 3.00000000 breaks has SSR : 445.18186462 The dates of the breaks are: 24.00000000 47.00000000 79.00000000 The model with 4.00000000 breaks has SSR : 444.87974911 The dates of the breaks are: 24.00000000 47.00000000 64.00000000 79.00000000 The model with 5.00000000 breaks has SSR : 449.63948545 The dates of the breaks are: 16.00000000 31.00000000 47.00000000 64.00000000 79.00000000 ******************************************************** Output from the application of Information criteria -------------------------------------------------------------- Values of BIC and lwz with 0.00000000 breaks: 2.46770606 2.47746224 Values of BIC and lwz with 1.00000000 breaks: 1.92450912 2.00945667 Values of BIC and lwz with 2.00000000 breaks: 1.66764403 1.82818304 Values of BIC and lwz with 3.00000000 breaks: 1.73373811 1.97028515 Values of BIC and lwz with 4.00000000 breaks: 1.82305398 2.13604319 Values of BIC and lwz with 5.00000000 breaks: 1.92369082 2.31357498 The number of breaks chosen by BIC is : 2.00000000 The number of breaks chosen by LWZ is : 2.00000000 ******************************************************** Output from the estimation of the model selected by BIC -------------------------------------------------------------- Valid cases: 103 Dependent variable: Y Missing cases: 0 Deletion method: None Total SS: 1214.922 Degrees of freedom: 100 R-squared: 0.625 Rbar-squared: 0.617 Residual SS: 455.950 Std error of est: 2.135 F(3,100): 55.486 Probability of F: 0.000 Durbin-Watson: 1.942 Standard Prob Standardized Cor with Variable Estimate Error t-value >|t| Estimate Dep Var ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- X1 1.355037 0.311465 4.350523 0.000 0.247421 0.247421 X2 -1.796138 0.377471 -4.758347 0.000 -0.270615 -0.270615 X3 5.642890 0.435866 12.946384 0.000 0.736282 0.736282 -------------------------------------------------------------- Corrected standard errors for the coefficients -------------------------------------------------------------- The corrected standard error for coefficient 1.00000000 is: 0.15545194 The corrected standard error for coefficient 2.00000000 is: 0.51098471 The corrected standard error for coefficient 3.00000000 is: 0.60290291 ----- (additional output, CK) ------------------------------ ----- (robust standard errors) ----------------------------- phi1s is: 1.13576937 phi2s is: 8.35537184 eta is: 1.00000000 ------------------------------------------------------------ ---(!! part of brcode.src, but hidden by default. !! CK )--- ------------------------------------------------------------ The critical values for the construction of the confidence intervals for the 1.00000000 th break are (2.5%,5%,95%,97.5%): -5.77278137 -2.79483795 62.89291382 87.58850098 ------------------------------------------------------------ ----- (additional output, CK) ------------------------------ ----- (robust standard errors) ----------------------------- phi1s is: 8.35537184 phi2s is: 8.72380604 eta is: 1.00000000 ------------------------------------------------------------ ---(!! part of brcode.src, but hidden by default. !! CK )--- ------------------------------------------------------------ The critical values for the construction of the confidence intervals for the 2.00000000 th break are (2.5%,5%,95%,97.5%): -10.97869873 -7.63397217 8.07933807 11.57417297 ------------------------------------------------------------ -------------------------------------------------------------- Confidence intervals for the break dates -------------------------------------------------------------- The 95% C.I. for the 1.00000000 th break is: 36.00000000 48.00000000 The 90% C.I. for the 1.00000000 th break is: 39.00000000 48.00000000 The 95% C.I. for the 2.00000000 th break is: 77.00000000 81.00000000 The 90% C.I. for the 2.00000000 th break is: 77.00000000 81.00000000 ******************************************************** ******************************************************** Output from the estimation of the model with 3.00000000 breaks -------------------------------------------------------------- Valid cases: 103 Dependent variable: Y Missing cases: 0 Deletion method: None Total SS: 1214.922 Degrees of freedom: 99 R-squared: 0.634 Rbar-squared: 0.622 Residual SS: 445.182 Std error of est: 2.121 F(4,99): 42.794 Probability of F: 0.000 Durbin-Watson: 1.982 Standard Prob Standardized Cor with Variable Estimate Error t-value >|t| Estimate Dep Var ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- X1 1.823617 0.432858 4.212967 0.000 0.237945 0.237945 X2 0.866085 0.442168 1.958724 0.053 0.110627 0.110627 X3 -1.796138 0.374866 -4.791414 0.000 -0.270615 -0.270615 X4 5.642890 0.432858 13.036351 0.000 0.736282 0.736282 -------------------------------------------------------------- Corrected standard errors for the coefficients -------------------------------------------------------------- The corrected standard error for coefficient 1.00000000 is: 0.18988758 The corrected standard error for coefficient 2.00000000 is: 0.15349462 The corrected standard error for coefficient 3.00000000 is: 0.51098471 The corrected standard error for coefficient 4.00000000 is: 0.60290291 ----- (additional output, CK) ------------------------------ ----- (robust standard errors) ----------------------------- phi1s is: 0.86537500 phi2s is: 0.54189377 eta is: 1.00000000 ------------------------------------------------------------ ---(!! part of brcode.src, but hidden by default. !! CK )--- ------------------------------------------------------------ The critical values for the construction of the confidence intervals for the 1.00000000 th break are (2.5%,5%,95%,97.5%): -11.47994995 -8.12606812 4.36840057 6.45008087 ------------------------------------------------------------ ----- (additional output, CK) ------------------------------ ----- (robust standard errors) ----------------------------- phi1s is: 0.54189377 phi2s is: 8.35537184 eta is: 1.00000000 ------------------------------------------------------------ ---(!! part of brcode.src, but hidden by default. !! CK )--- ------------------------------------------------------------ The critical values for the construction of the confidence intervals for the 2.00000000 th break are (2.5%,5%,95%,97.5%): -2.98080444 -0.50497055 86.17848158 86.22769713 ------------------------------------------------------------ ----- (additional output, CK) ------------------------------ ----- (robust standard errors) ----------------------------- phi1s is: 8.35537184 phi2s is: 8.72380604 eta is: 1.00000000 ------------------------------------------------------------ ---(!! part of brcode.src, but hidden by default. !! CK )--- ------------------------------------------------------------ The critical values for the construction of the confidence intervals for the 3.00000000 th break are (2.5%,5%,95%,97.5%): -10.97869873 -7.63397217 8.07933807 11.57417297 ------------------------------------------------------------ -------------------------------------------------------------- Confidence intervals for the break dates -------------------------------------------------------------- The 95% C.I. for the 1.00000000 th break is: 17.00000000 35.00000000 The 90% C.I. for the 1.00000000 th break is: 19.00000000 32.00000000 The 95% C.I. for the 2.00000000 th break is: 40.00000000 48.00000000 The 90% C.I. for the 2.00000000 th break is: 40.00000000 48.00000000 The 95% C.I. for the 3.00000000 th break is: 77.00000000 81.00000000 The 90% C.I. for the 3.00000000 th break is: 77.00000000 81.00000000 ********************************************************