-
Grain Prices in Pre-industrial Germany, Fifteenth to Nineteenth Centuries
We present the largest homogenous dataset of grain prices for four major types of grain for pre-industrial Germany covering 70 cities with a total of 259 time series. This... -
The economics of state fragmentation: Assessing the economic impact of secess...
This paper presents estimates of the economic effects of secession for a large panel of countries that gained independence between 1940 and 2016. It relies on a semi-parametric... -
Forecast uncertainty, disagreement, and the linear pool (replication data)
The linear pool is the most popular method for combining density forecasts. We analyze its implications concerning forecast uncertainty, using a new framework that focuses on... -
International spillovers of forward guidance shocks (replication data)
We estimate a two-country model of the United States and Canada over the post 2009 sample to study the cross-country spillovers of forward guidance shocks. To do so, we propose... -
Bootstrap inference and diagnostics in state space models: With applications ...
This paper investigates the potentials of the bootstrap as a tool for inference on the parameters of macroeconometric models which admit a state space representation. We... -
Cyclical labour income risk in Great Britain (replication data)
This paper provides new evidence on the cyclical behaviour of household labour income risk in Great Britain and the role of social insurance policy in mitigating against this... -
Nonlinear effects of government spending shocks in the USA: Evidence from sta...
This paper uses state-level data to estimate the effect of government spending shocks during expansions and recessions. By employing a mixed-frequency framework, we are able to... -
Common correlated effect cross‐sectional dependence corrections for nonlinear...
This paper provides an approach to estimation and inference for nonlinear conditional mean panel data models, in the presence of cross-sectional dependence. We modify Pesaran's... -
Real‐time detection of regimes of predictability in the US equity premium (re...
We propose new real-time monitoring procedures for the emergence of end-of-sample predictive regimes using sequential implementations of standard (heteroskedasticity-robust)... -
Reevaluating the prudence of economic forecasts in the EU: The role of instru...
Christodoulakis and Mamatzakis (2009, Journal of Applied Econometrics 24, pp. 583-606) estimate the EU Commission loss preferences for selected economic forecasts of 12 EU... -
Estimation and inference for spatial models with heterogeneous coefficients: ...
This paper considers the estimation and inference of spatial panel data models with heterogeneous spatial lag coefficients, with and without weakly exogenous regressors, and... -
Modeling the conditional distribution of financial returns with asymmetric ta...
This paper proposes a conditional density model that allows for differing left/right tail indices and time-varying volatility based on the dynamic conditional score (DCS)... -
The next hundred years of growth and convergence (replication data)
World gross domestic product per capita is forecast to grow at 2.6% annually over the next 100 years. Convergence of less-developed countries toward output levels of the world... -
Estimating and accounting for the output gap with large Bayesian vector autor...
We consider how to estimate the trend and cycle of a time series, such as real gross domestic product, given a large information set. Our approach makes use of the... -
Interpreting shocks to the relative price of investment with a two‐sector mod...
Consumption and investment comove over the business cycle in response to shocks that permanently move the price of investment. The interpretation of these shocks has relied on... -
Two are better than one: Volatility forecasting using multiplicative componen...
We examine the properties and forecast performance of multiplicative volatility specifications that belong to the class of generalized autoregressive conditional... -
Introducing the Bank of Canada staff economic projections database (replicati...
We present a new, publicly available database of real-time data and forecasts from the Bank of Canada's staff economic projections, which will be updated on an annual basis. We... -
Simultaneous confidence bands: Theory, implementation, and an application to ...
Simultaneous confidence bands are versatile tools for visualizing estimation uncertainty for parameter vectors, such as impulse response functions. In linear models, it is known... -
Private returns to R&D in the presence of spillovers, revisited (replicat...
This is both a replication of Eberhardt et al. (Review of Economics and Statistics, 2013, 95(2), 436-448) using different software, and a critical extension and diagnostic... -
The puzzling effects of monetary policy in VARs: Invalid identification or mi...
Standard vector autoregressions (VARs) often find puzzling effects of monetary policy shocks. Is this due to an invalid (recursive) identification scheme, or because the...
