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Structural break threshold VARs for predicting US recessions using the spread...
This paper proposes a model to predict recessions that accounts for non-linearity and a structural break when the spread between long- and short-term interest rates is the... -
A joint model for the term structure of interest rates and the macroeconomy (...
We present and estimate a continuous time term structure model that incorporates observable macroeconomic variables and latent variables with a clear macroeconomic... -
Evaluating interval forecasts of high-frequency financial data (replication d...
A number of methods of evaluating the validity of interval forecasts of financial data are analysed, and illustrated using intraday FTSE100 index futures returns. Some existing... -
The age profile of mobility measures: an application to earnings in West Germ...
This paper develops a technique for estimating age-profiles of earnings mobility using conditional kernel density estimation and establishes their statistical properties. Both... -
Modelling market fundamentals: A model of the aluminium market (replication d...
The standard approach to modelling primary commodity markets under rational expectations is to relate the commodity price to the production and consumption surprises (i.e. the...
