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Measuring predictability: theory and macroeconomic applications (replication ...
We propose a measure of predictability based on the ratio of the expected loss of a short-run forecast to the expected loss of a long-run forecast. This predictability measure... -
The demand for M3 in the euro area (replication data)
In this paper, an empirically stable money demand model for M3 in the euro area is constructed. Starting with a multivariate system, three cointegrating relationships with... -
A score test for non-nested hypotheses with applications to discrete data mod...
In this paper it is shown that a convenient score test against non-nested alternatives can be constructed from the linear combination of the likelihood functions of the... -
Model uncertainty in cross-country growth regressions (replication data)
We investigate the issue of model uncertainty in cross-country growth regressions using Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA). We find that the posterior probability is spread widely... -
Trend-stationary GNP: evidence from a new exact pointwise most powerful invar...
There has been a substantial debate whether GNP has a unit root. However, statistical tests have had little success in distinguishing between unit-root and trend-reverting... -
Monetary policy analysis and inflation targeting in a small open economy: a V...
Empirical monetary policy research has increased in the last decade, possibly because deregulation and explicit monetary targets have made monetary policy issues more... -
Estimating shocks and impulse response functions (replication data)
This paper examines the issue of how to identify the shocks in a cointegrated VAR when the following assumptions are made: the variables can be classified as endogenous or... -
Descriptive econometrics for non-stationary time series with empirical illust...
Recent work by the author on methods of spatial density analysis for time series data with stochastic trends is reviewed. The methods are extended to include processes with... -
Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships (replication...
This paper develops a new approach to the problem of testing the existence of a level relationship between a dependent variable and a set of regressors, when it is not known... -
An I(2) analysis of inflation and the markup (replication data)
An I(2) analysis of Australian inflation and the markup is undertaken within an imperfect competition model. It is found that the levels of prices and costs are best... -
Modelling the conditional volatility of commodity index futures as a regime s...
Commodity index futures offer a versatile tool for gaining different forms of exposure to commodity markets. Volatility is a critical input in many of these applications. This... -
Autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity in commodity spot prices (repli...
Muth's (1961) rational expectations model of commodity markets implies that inventory carryover creates ARCH processes in prices. The model also indicates that the expected... -
Quasi-fixed inputs and long-run equilibrium in production: a cointegration an...
This paper proposes a cointegration approach to testing the validity long-run equilibrium in production, where capital and labour are taken as quasi-fixed inputs. Previous... -
An empirical comparison of flexible demand system functional forms (replicati...
This paper compares the performance of eight frequently used flexible forms that are either (1) locally flexible, (2) effectively globally regular, or (3) asymptotically...
