-
Forecasting interest rates with shifting endpoints (replication data)
We consider forecasting the term structure of interest rates with the assumption that factors driving the yield curve are stationary around a slowly time-varying mean or... -
MODELLING REGIME SWITCHING AND STRUCTURAL BREAKS WITH AN INFINITE HIDDEN MARK...
This paper proposes an infinite hidden Markov model to integrate the regime switching and structural break dynamics in a unified Bayesian framework. Two parallel hierarchical... -
THE ROLE OF CONDITIONAL HETEROSKEDASTICITY IN IDENTIFYING AND ESTIMATING LINE...
A new estimator is proposed for linear triangular systems, where identification results from the model errors following a bivariate and diagonal GARCH(1,1) process with... -
THE DYNAMICS OF REAL EXCHANGE RATES: A RECONSIDERATION (replication data)
In this paper we offer a bootstrap-based version of the Cox specification test for non-nested hypothesis to discriminate between ESTAR and MSAR models. Both models are commonly... -
REALIZED BETA GARCH: A MULTIVARIATE GARCH MODEL WITH REALIZED MEASURES OF VOL...
We introduce a multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model that incorporates realized measures of variances and covariances. Realized... -
A MOMENT-MATCHING METHOD FOR APPROXIMATING VECTOR AUTOREGRESSIVE PROCESSES BY...
This paper proposes a moment-matching method for approximating vector autoregressions by finite-state Markov chains. The Markov chain is constructed by targeting the conditional... -
CONSTRUCTING OPTIMAL DENSITY FORECASTS FROM POINT FORECAST COMBINATIONS (repl...
Decision makers often observe point forecasts of the same variable computed, for instance, by commercial banks, IMF and the World Bank, but the econometric models used by such... -
FORECASTING DISCONNECTED EXCHANGE RATES (replication data)
The inability of empirical models to forecast exchange rates has given rise to the belief that exchange rates are disconnected from macroeconomic fundamentals. This paper...
