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Combining density forecasts using focused scoring rules (replication data)
We investigate the added value of combining density forecasts focused on a specific region of support. We develop forecast combination schemes that assign weights to individual... -
Loss functions for predicted click-through rates in auctions for online adver...
We characterize the optimal loss functions for predicted click-through rates in auctions for online advertising. Whereas standard loss functions such as mean squared error or... -
Efficient estimation of Bayesian VARMAs with time‐varying coefficients (repli...
Empirical work in macroeconometrics has been mostly restricted to using vector autoregressions (VARs), even though there are strong theoretical reasons to consider general... -
Identifying relevant and irrelevant variables in sparse factor models (replic...
This paper considers factor estimation from heterogeneous data, where some of the variables-the relevant ones-are informative for estimating the factors, and others-the... -
Real exchange rate persistence and the excess return puzzle: The case of Swit...
The PPP puzzle refers to the wide swings of nominal exchange rates around their long-run equilibrium values whereas the excess return puzzle represents the persistent deviation... -
Structural FECM: Cointegration in large‐scale structural FAVAR models (replic...
Starting from the dynamic factor model for nonstationary data we derive the factor-augmented error correction model (FECM) and its moving-average representation. The latter is... -
The cycle of violence in the Second Intifada: Causality in nonlinear vector a...
We contest Jaeger and Paserman's claim (Jaeger and Paserman , 2008. The cycle of violence? An empirical analysis of fatalities in the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. American... -
Anchoring the yield curve using survey expectations (replication data)
The dynamic behavior of the term structure of interest rates is difficult to replicate with models, and even models with a proven track record of empirical performance have... -
Credit Booms Gone Bust: Replication of Schularick and Taylor (AER 2012) (repl...
This paper replicates the results in Schularick and Taylor (American Economic Review 2012; 102(2): 1029-1061; ST hereafter). Specifically, I replicate ST's results in the narrow... -
Joint Bayesian Analysis of Parameters and States in Nonlinear non-Gaussian St...
We propose a new methodology for designing flexible proposal densities for the joint posterior density of parameters and states in a nonlinear, non-Gaussian state space model.... -
Out-of-Sample Return Predictability: A Quantile Combination Approach (replica...
This paper develops a novel forecasting method that minimizes the effects of weak predictors and estimation errors on the accuracy of equity premium forecasts. The proposed... -
Loan Supply Shocks and the Business Cycle (replication data)
This paper provides empirical evidence on the role played by loan supply shocks over the business cycle in the euro area, the UK and the USA from 1980 to 2011 by estimating... -
Narrow Replication of Fisman and Miguel's (2007a) ‘Corruption, Norms, and Leg...
This note provides a narrow replication of Fisman and Miguel's (Journal of Political Economy, 2007a; 115(6): 1020-1048) original findings about estimating negative binomial... -
Income and Democracy: A Smooth Varying Coefficient Redux (replication data)
Acemoglu et al. (American Economic Review 2008; 98: 808-842) find no effect of income on democracy when controlling for fixed effects in a dynamic panel model. Work by... -
Empirical Bayesball Remixed: Empirical Bayes Methods for Longitudinal Data (r...
Empirical Bayes methods for Gaussian and binomial compound decision problems involving longitudinal data are considered. A recent convex optimization reformulation of the... -
Teacher Quality and Student Achievement: Evidence from a Sample of Dutch Twin...
This paper examines the causal link that runs from classroom quality to student achievement using data on twin pairs who entered the same school but were allocated to different... -
Tests of Predictive Ability for Vector Autoregressions Used for Conditional F...
Many forecasts are conditional in nature. For example, a number of central banks routinely report forecasts conditional on particular paths of policy instruments. Even though... -
State Prices of Conditional Quantiles: New Evidence on Time Variation in the ...
We develop a set of statistics to represent the option-implied stochastic discount factor and we apply them to S&P 500 returns between 1990 and 2012. Our statistics, which... -
The Early Millennium Slowdown: Replicating the Peersman (2005) Results (repli...
This paper undertakes both a narrow and wide replication of the constant coefficients vector autoregression (VAR) identified with sign restrictions considered by Peersman... -
Forecasting Tail Risks (replication data)
This paper presents an early warning system as a set of multi-period forecasts of indicators of tail real and financial risks obtained using a large database of monthly US data...
