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Efficient estimation of Bayesian VARMAs with timeâvarying coefficients (repli...
Empirical work in macroeconometrics has been mostly restricted to using vector autoregressions (VARs), even though there are strong theoretical reasons to consider general... -
Tests of Predictive Ability for Vector Autoregressions Used for Conditional F...
Many forecasts are conditional in nature. For example, a number of central banks routinely report forecasts conditional on particular paths of policy instruments. Even though... -
Spotting the Danger Zone: Forecasting Financial Crises With Classification Tr...
This paper introduces classification tree ensembles (CTEs) to the banking crisis forecasting literature. I show that CTEs substantially improve out-of-sample forecasting...
