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Individual forecaster perceptions of the persistence of shocks to GDP (replic...
We analyse individual professional forecasters' beliefs concerning the persistence of GDP shocks. Despite substantial apparent heterogeneity in perceptions, with around one half... -
An automated prior robustness analysis in Bayesian model comparison (replicat...
It is well-known that the marginal likelihood, the gold standard for Bayesian model comparison, can be sensitive to prior hyperparameter choices. However, most models require... -
Expanding health insurance for the elderly of the Philippines (replication data)
This paper evaluates a Filipino policy that expanded health insurance coverage of its senior citizens, aged 60 and older, in 2014. We employ an instrumental variables estimator... -
A Bayesian approach to account for misclassification in prevalence and trend ...
In this paper, we present a Bayesian approach to estimate the mean of a binary variable and changes in the mean over time, when the variable is subject to misclassification... -
Information gains from using short‐dated options for measuring and forecastin...
We study the gains from using short-dated options for volatility measurement and forecasting. Using option portfolios, we estimate nonparametrically spot volatility under weak... -
Individual consumption in collective households: Identification using repeate...
Individual consumption is typically not observed for individuals living with others. Identification of individual resource shares from household expenditure data requires... -
The deposits channel revisited (replication data)
Drechsler et al. (2017) present a novel reformulation of the bank lending channel of monetary transmission based on market power in local deposits markets, which they term the... -
Dynamic treatment effects of job training (replication data)
This paper estimates the dynamic returns to job training. We posit a model of sequential training participation, where decisions and outcomes depend on observed and unobserved... -
Contagious switching (replication data)
We analyze the propagation of recessions across countries using a model with multiple qualitative state variables in a vector autoregression (VAR). The VAR may include... -
Dependence‐robust inference using resampled statistics (replication data)
We develop inference procedures robust to general forms of weak dependence. The procedures utilize test statistics constructed by resampling in a manner that does not depend on... -
Dynamic evaluation of job search assistance (replication data)
This paper evaluates a job search assistance program for unemployed teachers where the assignment to the program is dynamic. We discuss the methodology of estimating dynamic... -
Commodity prices and inflation risk (replication data)
This paper investigates the role of commodity price information when evaluating inflation risk. Using a model averaging approach, we provide strong evidence of in-sample and... -
Declining discount rates in Singapore's market for privately developed apartm...
Singapore's market for new privately developed apartments exhibits wide quasi-experimental variation in ownership tenure. We develop an empirical model in which prices are... -
Encompassing measures of international consumption risk sharing and their lin...
We investigate international consumption risk sharing in a panel of 15 industrial economies over the historical period 1875-2016. By considering a rich empirical... -
The bilateral trade effects of announcement shocks: Brexit as a natural field...
We analyse the effects of uncertainty and anticipation shocks associated with the 2016 Brexit vote as a treatment on trade between the UK and 14 EU and 14 non-EU trading... -
The economics of state fragmentation: Assessing the economic impact of secess...
This paper presents estimates of the economic effects of secession for a large panel of countries that gained independence between 1940 and 2016. It relies on a semi-parametric... -
Forecast uncertainty, disagreement, and the linear pool (replication data)
The linear pool is the most popular method for combining density forecasts. We analyze its implications concerning forecast uncertainty, using a new framework that focuses on... -
Economic impact of the most drastic lockdown during COVID‐19 pandemic—The exp...
This paper uses a panel data approach to assess the evolution of economic consequences of the drastic lockdown policy in the epicenter of COVID-19-the Hubei Province of China... -
International spillovers of forward guidance shocks (replication data)
We estimate a two-country model of the United States and Canada over the post 2009 sample to study the cross-country spillovers of forward guidance shocks. To do so, we propose... -
Aggregate consumption and wealth in the long run: The impact of financial lib...
This paper investigates the impact of financial liberalization on the relationship between consumption and total wealth (i.e., the sum of asset wealth and human wealth)....
