-
Nonlinear effects of government spending shocks in the USA: Evidence from sta...
This paper uses state-level data to estimate the effect of government spending shocks during expansions and recessions. By employing a mixed-frequency framework, we are able to... -
Common correlated effect cross‐sectional dependence corrections for nonlinear...
This paper provides an approach to estimation and inference for nonlinear conditional mean panel data models, in the presence of cross-sectional dependence. We modify Pesaran's... -
Cointegration and control: Assessing the impact of events using time series d...
Control groups can provide counterfactual evidence for assessing the impact of an event or policy change on a target variable. We argue that fitting a multivariate time series... -
Real‐time detection of regimes of predictability in the US equity premium (re...
We propose new real-time monitoring procedures for the emergence of end-of-sample predictive regimes using sequential implementations of standard (heteroskedasticity-robust)... -
Robust political economy correlates of major product and labor market reforms...
The political economy literature has put forward a multitude of hypotheses regarding the drivers of structural reforms, but few, if any, empirically robust findings have emerged... -
Analyzing credit risk transmission to the nonfinancial sector in Europe: A ne...
We use a factor model and elastic net shrinkage to model a high-dimensional network of European credit default swap (CDS) spreads. Our empirical approach allows us to assess the... -
Switching generalized autoregressive score copula models with application to ...
Recent financial disasters have emphasized the need to accurately predict extreme financial losses and their consequences for the institutions belonging to a given financial... -
Estimating within‐cluster spillover effects using a cluster randomization wit...
Spillover effects within randomized clusters pose a challenge for identifying impacts of an individualized treatment. The paper proposes a solution. Longitudinal and... -
Estimating the distribution of welfare effects using quantiles (replication d...
This paper proposes a framework to model welfare effects that are associated with a price change in a population of heterogeneous consumers. The framework is similar to that of... -
Estimating global bank network connectedness (replication data)
We use LASSO methods to shrink, select, and estimate the high-dimensional network linking the publicly traded subset of the world's top 150 banks, 2003-2014. We characterize... -
Difference-in-differences when the treatment status is observed in only one p...
This paper considers the difference-in-differences (DID) method when the data come from repeated cross-sections and the treatment status is observed either before or after the... -
A sequential Monte Carlo approach to inference in multiple‐equation Markov‐sw...
Vector autoregressions with Markov-switching parameters (MS-VARs) offer substantial gains in data fit over VARs with constant parameters. However, Bayesian inference for MS-VARs... -
State Prices of Conditional Quantiles: New Evidence on Time Variation in the ...
We develop a set of statistics to represent the option-implied stochastic discount factor and we apply them to S&P 500 returns between 1990 and 2012. Our statistics, which... -
The Early Millennium Slowdown: Replicating the Peersman (2005) Results (repli...
This paper undertakes both a narrow and wide replication of the constant coefficients vector autoregression (VAR) identified with sign restrictions considered by Peersman... -
Forecasting Tail Risks (replication data)
This paper presents an early warning system as a set of multi-period forecasts of indicators of tail real and financial risks obtained using a large database of monthly US data... -
Estimation of Dynamic Panel Data Models with Cross-Sectional Dependence: Usin...
This paper considers the estimation of dynamic panel data models when data are suspected to exhibit cross-sectional dependence. A new estimator is defined that uses... -
Identification of Spatial Durbin Panel Models (replication data)
This paper considers identification of spatial Durbin dynamic panel models under 2SLS and ML estimations. We show that the parameters are generally identified via 2SLS moment... -
Using OLS to Estimate and Test for Structural Changes in Models with Endogeno...
We consider the problem of estimating and testing for multiple breaks in a single-equation framework with regressors that are endogenous, i.e. correlated with the errors. We... -
Econometric Regime Shifts and the US Subprime Bubble (replication data)
Using aggregate quarterly data for the period 1975:Q1-2010:Q4, I find that the US housing market changed from a stable regime with prices determined by fundamentals, to a highly... -
EXPLORING ALL VAR ORDERINGS FOR CALCULATING SPILLOVERS? YES, WE CAN!-A NOTE O...
Diebold and Yilmaz (Economic Journal 2009; 119; 158-171) introduce the spillover index to measure linkages between international financial markets. As their index depends on the...
