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Can inflation data improve the real-time reliability of output gap estimates?...
Potential output plays a central role in monetary policy and short-term macroeconomic policy making. Yet, characterizing the output gap involves a trend-cycle decomposition, and... -
This is what the leading indicators lead (replication data)
We propose an optimal filter to transform the Conference Board Composite Leading Index (CLI) into recession probabilities in the US economy. We also analyse the CLI's accuracy...
