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REVERSE REGRESSIONS AND LONG-HORIZON FORECASTING (replication data)
Long-horizon predictive regressions in finance pose formidable econometric problems when estimated using available sample sizes. Hodrick in 1992 proposed a remedy that is based... -
TIME-VARYING DYNAMICS OF THE REAL EXCHANGE RATE: AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS (repli...
We use a time-varying structural vector autoregression to investigate evolving dynamics of the real exchange rate for the UK, euro area and Canada. We show that demand and... -
POOLING VERSUS MODEL SELECTION FOR NOWCASTING GDP WITH MANY PREDICTORS: EMPIR...
This paper discusses pooling versus model selection for nowcasting with large datasets in the presence of model uncertainty. In practice, nowcasting a low-frequency variable... -
THE GROWTH AFTERMATH OF NATURAL DISASTERS (replication data)
This paper traces the yearly response of gross domestic product growth-both aggregated and disaggregated into its agricultural and non-agricultural components-to four types of... -
LONG-RUN RISKS IN THE TERM STRUCTURE OF INTEREST RATES: ESTIMATION (replicati...
This paper estimates a model in which persistent fluctuations in expected consumption growth, expected inflation, and their time-varying volatility determine asset price... -
REAL-TIME FORECASTING OF INFLATION AND OUTPUT GROWTH WITH AUTOREGRESSIVE MODE...
We examine how the accuracy of real-time forecasts from models that include autoregressive terms can be improved by estimating the models on lightly revised data instead of... -
HOW PUZZLING IS THE PPP PUZZLE? AN ALTERNATIVE HALF-LIFE MEASURE OF CONVERGEN...
Evidence of lengthy half-lives for real exchange rates in the presence of a high degree of exchange rate volatility has been considered as one of the most puzzling empirical... -
EURO CORPORATE BOND RISK FACTORS (replication data)
This paper investigates the determinants of credit spread changes in euro-denominated bonds. We adopt a factor model framework, inspired by the credit risk structural approach,...
