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Combining shrinkage and sparsity in conjugate vector autoregressive models (r...
Conjugate priors allow for fast inference in large dimensional vector autoregressive (VAR) models. But at the same time, they introduce the restriction that each equation... -
Assessing international commonality in macroeconomic uncertainty and its effe...
This paper uses a large vector autoregression to measure international macroeconomic uncertainty and its effects on major economies. We provide evidence of significant... -
Systemic risk and bank business models (replication data)
In this paper, we decompose banks' systemic risk into two dimensions: the risk of a bank (?bank tail risk?) and the link of the bank to the system in financial distress... -
Real‐time forecast combinations for the oil price (replication data)
Baumeister and Kilian (Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 2015, 33(3), 338-351) combine forecasts from six empirical models to predict real oil prices. In this paper,... -
Policy uncertainty and aggregate fluctuations (replication data)
This paper estimates the impact on the US economy of four types of uncertainty about (i) government spending, (ii) tax changes, (iii) public debt, and (iv) monetary policy.... -
A generalized focused information criterion for GMM (replication data)
This paper proposes a criterion for simultaneous generalized method of moments model and moment selection: the generalized focused information criterion (GFIC). Rather than... -
Confronting Price Endogeneity in a Duration Model of Residential Subdivision ...
Spatial equilibrium implies that distant factors are correlated with local prices through market mechanisms. Using this logic, we develop a novel approach for handling price... -
Weak and Strong Cross-Sectional Dependence: A Panel Data Analysis of Internat...
This paper provides an econometric examination of technological knowledge spillovers among countries by focusing on the issue of error cross-sectional dependence, particularly... -
Forecast Rationality Tests in the Presence of Instabilities, with Application...
This paper proposes a framework to implement regression-based tests of predictive ability in unstable environments, including, in particular, forecast unbiasedness and... -
POOLING VERSUS MODEL SELECTION FOR NOWCASTING GDP WITH MANY PREDICTORS: EMPIR...
This paper discusses pooling versus model selection for nowcasting with large datasets in the presence of model uncertainty. In practice, nowcasting a low-frequency variable... -
Long-run monetary neutrality and long-horizon regressions (replication data)
A prominent test of long-run monetary neutrality (LRMN) involves regressing long-horizon output growth on long-horizon money growth. We obtain limited support for LRMN with this... -
Does Variable Shiftwork Explain Away Productivity Shocks? A Bayesian Approach...
MacroconomicData.csv - contains relevant US macro data capitalparameters.csv, finalgoodparameters.csv, laborparameters.csv, oneshiftparameters.csv - contain the parameter...
