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Estimating time series models using the relevant cost function (replication d...
In many forecasting problems, the forecast cost function is used only in evaluating the forecasts; a second cost function is used in estimating the parameters in the model. In... -
Co-integration constraint and forecasting: An empirical examination (replicat...
Does co-integration help long-term forecasts? In this paper, we use simulation, real data sets, and multi-step-ahead post-sample forecasts to study this question. Based on the... -
Assessing forecast performance in a cointegrated system (replication data)
This paper examines the forecast performance of a cointegrated system relative to the forecast performance of a comparable VAR that fails to recognize that the system is... -
Stock market volatility and the business cycle (replication data)
This paper investigates the joint time series behavior of monthly stock returns and growth in industrial production. We find that stock returns are well characterized by... -
Can we improve the perceived quality of economic forecasts? (replication data)
A number of topics are discussed concerning how economic forecasts can be improved in quality or at least in presentation. These include the following: using 50% uncertainty... -
Intercept corrections and structural change (replication data)
Analyses of forecasting that assume a constant, time-invariant data generating process (DGP), and so implicitly rule out structural change or regime shifts in the economy,...
