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A Hidden Markov Model Approach to Information-Based Trading: Theory and Appli...
This paper develops a novel approach to information-based securities trading by characterizing the hidden state of the market, which varies following a Markov process. Extensive... -
Estimating Incentive and Selection Effects in the Medigap Insurance Market: A...
This paper presents an empirical study of endogenous treatment effects in the presence of heterogeneous responses. We estimate the incentive and selection effects of having... -
Fiscal Policies and Credit Regimes: A TVAR Approach (replication data)
This work investigates how the state of credit markets affects the impact of fiscal policies. We estimate a threshold vector autoregression (TVAR) model on US quarterly data for... -
Anticipating Long-Term Stock Market Volatility (replication data)
We investigate the relationship between long-term US stock market risks and the macroeconomic environment using a two-component GARCH-MIDAS model. Our results show that... -
Extracting Nonlinear Signals from Several Economic Indicators (replication data)
We develop a twofold analysis of how the information provided by several economic indicators can be used in Markov switching dynamic factor models to identify the business cycle... -
Estimating and Forecasting the Yield Curve Using A Markov Switching Dynamic N...
We estimate versions of the Nelson-Siegel model of the yield curve of US government bonds using a Markov switching latent variable model that allows for discrete changes in the... -
Monetary Policy Indeterminacy and Identification Failures in the U.S.: Result...
We propose a novel identification-robust test for the null hypothesis that an estimated New Keynesian model has a reduced form consistent with the unique stable solution against... -
Macroeconomic Effects of Precautionary Demand for Oil (replication data)
We evaluate the macroeconomic effects of shocks specific to the oil market, which mainly reflect fluctuations in precautionary demand for oil driven by uncertainty about future... -
Replacing Sample Trimming with Boundary Correction in Nonparametric Estimatio...
Two-step nonparametric estimators have become standard in empirical auctions. A drawback concerns boundary effects which cause inconsistencies near the endpoints of the support... -
A New Utility-Consistent Econometric Approach to Multivariate Count Data Mode...
In the current paper, we propose a new utility-consistent modeling framework to explicitly link a count data model with an event-type multinomial-choice model. The proposed... -
Simple Identification and Specification of Cointegrated Varma Models (replica...
We bring together some recent advances in the literature on vector autoregressive moving-average models, creating a simple specification and estimation strategy for the... -
Local Adaptive Multiplicative Error Models for High-Frequency Forecasts (repl...
We propose a local adaptive multiplicative error model (MEM) accommodating time-varying parameters. MEM parameters are adaptively estimated based on a sequential testing... -
Regression Discontinuity Applications with Rounding Errors in the Running Var...
Many empirical applications of regression discontinuity (RD) models use a running variable that is rounded and hence discrete, e.g.?age in years, or birth weight in ounces. This... -
A Bayesian Semiparametric Competing Risk Model with Unobserved Heterogeneity ...
This paper generalizes existing econometric models for censored competing risks by introducing a new flexible specification based on a piecewise linear baseline hazard,... -
DSGE Models in the Frequency Domains (replication data)
We use frequency domain techniques to estimate a medium-scale dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model on different frequency bands. We show that goodness of fit,... -
Monetary Policy and the Housing Market: A Structural Factor Analysis (replica...
This paper studies the role of the Federal Reserve's policy in the recent boom and bust of the housing market, and in the ensuing recession. By estimating a structural dynamic... -
A Theoretical Foundation for the Nelson-Siegel Class of Yield Curve Models (r...
Yield curve models within the popular Nelson-Siegel class are shown to arise from formal low-order Taylor approximations of the generic Gaussian affine term structure model.... -
Econometric Regime Shifts and the US Subprime Bubble (replication data)
Using aggregate quarterly data for the period 1975:Q1-2010:Q4, I find that the US housing market changed from a stable regime with prices determined by fundamentals, to a highly...
