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Combining density forecasts using focused scoring rules (replication data)
We investigate the added value of combining density forecasts focused on a specific region of support. We develop forecast combination schemes that assign weights to individual... -
An endogenously clustered factor approach to international business cycles (r...
Factor models have become useful tools for studying international business cycles. Block factor models can be especially useful as the zero restrictions on the loadings of some... -
Nonparametric methods and local-time-based estimation for dynamic power law d...
This paper introduces nonparametric econometric methods that characterize general power law distributions under basic stability conditions. These methods extend the literature... -
Identifying relevant and irrelevant variables in sparse factor models (replic...
This paper considers factor estimation from heterogeneous data, where some of the variables-the relevant ones-are informative for estimating the factors, and others-the... -
Model selection with estimated factors and idiosyncratic components (replicat...
This paper provides consistent information criteria for the selection of forecasting models that use a subset of both the idiosyncratic and common factor components of a big... -
Credit Booms Gone Bust: Replication of Schularick and Taylor (AER 2012) (repl...
This paper replicates the results in Schularick and Taylor (American Economic Review 2012; 102(2): 1029-1061; ST hereafter). Specifically, I replicate ST's results in the narrow... -
Work Ethic, Social Ethic, no Ethic: Measuring the Economic Values of Modern C...
Benito Arruñad finds evidence of a distinct Protestant social ethic in the ISSP's 1998 Religion II Survey (Economic Journal 2010; 120: 890-918). We replicate Arruñada's results... -
Human Capital Spillovers and Regional Development (replication data)
This paper introduces technological interdependence into the theoretical framework of Gennaioli et al. (Quarterly Journal of Economics 2013; 128: 105-164). This extension leads... -
Out-of-Sample Return Predictability: A Quantile Combination Approach (replica...
This paper develops a novel forecasting method that minimizes the effects of weak predictors and estimation errors on the accuracy of equity premium forecasts. The proposed... -
Income and Democracy: A Smooth Varying Coefficient Redux (replication data)
Acemoglu et al. (American Economic Review 2008; 98: 808-842) find no effect of income on democracy when controlling for fixed effects in a dynamic panel model. Work by... -
Spotting the Danger Zone: Forecasting Financial Crises With Classification Tr...
This paper introduces classification tree ensembles (CTEs) to the banking crisis forecasting literature. I show that CTEs substantially improve out-of-sample forecasting... -
Transitions at Different Moments in Time: A Spatial Probit Approach (replicat...
This paper adopts a spatial probit approach to explain interaction effects among cross-sectional units when the dependent variable takes the form of a binary response variable...
