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Bayesian VARs: Specification Choices and Forecast Accuracy (replication data)
In this paper we discuss how the point and density forecasting performance of Bayesian vector autoregressions (BVARs) is affected by a number of specification choices. We adopt... -
Cointegration in Panel Data with Structural Breaks and Cross-Section Dependen...
The power of standard panel cointegration statistics may be affected by misspecification errors if structural breaks in the parameters generating the process are not considered.... -
CHOOSING THE VARIABLES TO ESTIMATE SINGULAR DSGE MODELS (replication data)
We propose two methods to choose the variables to be used in the estimation of the structural parameters of a singular DSGE model. The first selects the vector of observables... -
PRACTICAL TOOLS FOR POLICY ANALYSIS IN DSGE MODELS WITH MISSING SHOCKS (repli...
In this paper we analyze the propagation of shocks originating in sectors that are not present in a baseline dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. Specifically,... -
WHO REALLY WANTS TO BE A MILLIONAIRE? ESTIMATES OF RISK AVERSION FROM GAMESHO...
This paper estimates the degree of risk aversion from one of the most popular TV gameshows ever. The format of the show is straightforward; it involves no strategic decision... -
SEMI-PARAMETRIC ESTIMATION OF PROGRAM IMPACTS ON DISPERSION OF POTENTIAL WAGE...
We propose the use of instrumental variables and pairwise matching to identify the average treatment effect on variance in potential outcomes. We show that identifying and... -
REALIZED BETA GARCH: A MULTIVARIATE GARCH MODEL WITH REALIZED MEASURES OF VOL...
We introduce a multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model that incorporates realized measures of variances and covariances. Realized... -
CONSTRUCTING OPTIMAL DENSITY FORECASTS FROM POINT FORECAST COMBINATIONS (repl...
Decision makers often observe point forecasts of the same variable computed, for instance, by commercial banks, IMF and the World Bank, but the econometric models used by such... -
ESTIMATION OF CENSORED PANEL-DATA MODELS WITH SLOPE HETEROGENEITY (replicatio...
This paper considers estimation of censored panel-data models with individual-specific slope heterogeneity. The slope heterogeneity may be random (random slopes model) or... -
DISENTANGLING DEMAND AND SUPPLY SHOCKS IN THE CRUDE OIL MARKET: HOW TO CHECK ...
Sign restrictions have become increasingly popular for identifying shocks in structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) models. So far there are no techniques for validating the... -
THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUD...
We develop a structural model of the global market for crude oil that for the first time explicitly allows for shocks to the speculative demand for oil as well as shocks to flow... -
crs: A PACKAGE FOR NONPARAMETRIC SPLINE ESTIMATION IN R (replication data)
crs is a library for R written by Jeffrey S. Racine (Maintainer) and Zhenghua Nie. This add-on package provides a collection of functions for spline-based nonparametric... -
NUMERICAL DISTRIBUTION FUNCTIONS OF FRACTIONAL UNIT ROOT AND COINTEGRATION TE...
We calculate, by simulations, numerical asymptotic distribution functions of likelihood ratio tests for fractional unit roots and cointegration rank. Because these distributions... -
THE ROLE OF TIME-VARYING PRICE ELASTICITIES IN ACCOUNTING FOR VOLATILITY CHAN...
There has been a systematic increase in the volatility of the real price of crude oil since 1986, followed by a decline in the volatility of oil production since the early... -
FACTOR ANALYSIS OF A LARGE DSGE MODEL (replication data)
We study the workings of the factor analysis of high-dimensional data using artificial series generated from a large, multi-sector dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE)... -
COMPARING ALTERNATIVE MODELS OF HETEROGENEITY IN CONSUMER CHOICE BEHAVIOR (re...
When modeling demand for differentiated products, it is vital to adequately capture consumer taste heterogeneity, But there is no clearly preferred approach. Here, we compare... -
UNEMPLOYMENT, HUMAN CAPITAL DEPRECIATION, AND UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE POLICY (...
This paper presents a structural estimation of a life cycle model with unemployment risk. The model allows for human capital depreciation during unemployment. It is estimated... -
MEDICAL EXPENDITURE RISK AND HOUSEHOLD PORTFOLIO CHOICE (replication data)
Medical expenses are an increasingly important contributor to household financial risk. We examine the effect of medical expenditure risk on the willingness of Medicare... -
SPATIAL FILTERING, MODEL UNCERTAINTY AND THE SPEED OF INCOME CONVERGENCE IN E...
In this paper we put forward a Bayesian model averaging method aimed at performing inference under model uncertainty in the presence of potential spatial autocorrelation. The... -
ENTRY INTO PHARMACEUTICAL SUBMARKETS: A BAYESIAN PANEL PROBIT ANALYSIS (repli...
We study entry into pharmaceutical submarkets by using a dynamic panel probit model. We develop a Bayesian version of Wooldridge's approach to dealing with unobserved...
