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Forecasting With the Standardized Self‐Perturbed Kalman Filter (replication d...
We propose and study the finite-sample properties of a modified version of the self-perturbed Kalman filter of Park and Jun (Electronics Letters 1992; 28: 558-559) for the... -
Mismatch Shocks and Unemployment During the Great Recession (replication data)
We investigate the macroeconomic consequences of fluctuations in the effectiveness of the labor market matching process with a focus on the Great Recession. We conduct our... -
Bubbles and Crises: The Role of House Prices and Credit (replication data)
This paper utilizes quarterly panel data for 20 OECD countries over the period 1975:Q1-2014:Q2 to explore the importance of house prices and credit in affecting the likelihood... -
Forecast Rationality Tests in the Presence of Instabilities, with Application...
This paper proposes a framework to implement regression-based tests of predictive ability in unstable environments, including, in particular, forecast unbiasedness and... -
A Social Interactions Model with Endogenous Friendship Formation and Selectiv...
This paper analyzes the endogeneity bias problem caused by associations of members within a network when the spatial autoregressive (SAR) model is used to study social... -
On the Empirical Failure of Purchasing Power Parity Tests (replication data)
Empirical research on the validity of the purchasing power parity (PPP) condition is generally based on real exchange rates built using the consumer price index (CPI), but fails... -
When Does the Stepping-Stone Work? Fixed-Term Contracts Versus Temporary Agen...
This paper emphasizes differences among short-term contracts in terms of career prospects. Using French data over the 2002-2010 period, we rely on a dynamic model with fixed... -
Monetary Policy and the Housing Market: A Structural Factor Analysis (replica...
This paper studies the role of the Federal Reserve's policy in the recent boom and bust of the housing market, and in the ensuing recession. By estimating a structural dynamic... -
Evaluating Point and Density Forecasts of DSGE Models (replication data)
This paper investigates the accuracy of forecasts from four dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models for inflation, output growth and the federal funds rate using a... -
CHOOSING THE VARIABLES TO ESTIMATE SINGULAR DSGE MODELS (replication data)
We propose two methods to choose the variables to be used in the estimation of the structural parameters of a singular DSGE model. The first selects the vector of observables... -
WHO REALLY WANTS TO BE A MILLIONAIRE? ESTIMATES OF RISK AVERSION FROM GAMESHO...
This paper estimates the degree of risk aversion from one of the most popular TV gameshows ever. The format of the show is straightforward; it involves no strategic decision... -
SEMI-PARAMETRIC ESTIMATION OF PROGRAM IMPACTS ON DISPERSION OF POTENTIAL WAGE...
We propose the use of instrumental variables and pairwise matching to identify the average treatment effect on variance in potential outcomes. We show that identifying and... -
THE ROLE OF TIME-VARYING PRICE ELASTICITIES IN ACCOUNTING FOR VOLATILITY CHAN...
There has been a systematic increase in the volatility of the real price of crude oil since 1986, followed by a decline in the volatility of oil production since the early... -
POOLING VERSUS MODEL SELECTION FOR NOWCASTING GDP WITH MANY PREDICTORS: EMPIR...
This paper discusses pooling versus model selection for nowcasting with large datasets in the presence of model uncertainty. In practice, nowcasting a low-frequency variable... -
Realized GARCH: a joint model for returns and realized measures of volatility...
We introduce a new framework, Realized GARCH, for the joint modeling of returns and realized measures of volatility. A key feature is a measurement equation that relates the... -
Stochastic monotonicity in intergenerational mobility tables (replication data)
The aim of this paper is to test for stochastic monotonicity in intergenerational socio-economic mobility tables. In other words, we question whether having a parent from a high... -
Non-Gaussian dynamic Bayesian modelling for panel data (replication data)
A first order autoregressive non-Gaussian model for analysing panel data is proposed. The main feature is that the model is able to accommodate fat tails and also skewness, thus... -
Modes, weighted modes, and calibrated modes: evidence of clustering using mod...
We apply recent results from the statistics literature to test for multimodality of worldwide distributions of several (unweighted and population-weighted) measures of labor... -
Is gravity linear? (replication data)
Despite the solid theoretical foundation on which the gravity model of bilateral trade is based, empirical implementation requires several assumptions which do not follow... -
Identification of parameters in normal error component logit-mixture (NECLM) ...
Although the basic structure of logit-mixture models is well understood, important identification and normalization issues often get overlooked. This paper addresses issues...