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Is euro area lowflation here to stay? Insights from a time‐varying parameter ...
We build a time-varying parameter model that jointly explains the dynamics of euro area inflation and inflation expectations. Our goal is to explain the weak inflation during... -
Unobserved components with stochastic volatility: Simulation‐based estimation...
The unobserved components time series model with stochastic volatility has gained much interest in econometrics, especially for the purpose of modelling and forecasting... -
Estimating household consumption insurance (replication data)
Blundell, Pistaferri, and Preston (American Economic Review, 2008, 98(5), 1887-1921) report an estimate of household consumption insurance with respect to permanent income... -
When are instruments generated from geographic characteristics in bilateral r...
In their highly influential paper, Does Trade Cause Growth,? Frankel and Romer estimate a trade equation to predict bilateral trade shares, which are in turn aggregated to... -
Combining shrinkage and sparsity in conjugate vector autoregressive models (r...
Conjugate priors allow for fast inference in large dimensional vector autoregressive (VAR) models. But at the same time, they introduce the restriction that each equation... -
The price of forced attendance (replication data)
We draw on a discontinuity at a large university, wherein second-year students with a low first-year grade point average are allocated to a full year of forced, frequent, and... -
Social interactions and social preferences in social networks (replication data)
We study social interactions when individuals hold altruistic preferences in social networks. Rich network features can be captured in the resulting best response function. The... -
Measuring the slowly evolving trend in US inflation with professional forecas...
Much research studies US inflation history with a trend-cycle model with unobserved components, where the trend may be viewed as the Fed's evolving inflation target or... -
Nonlinear effects of government spending shocks in the USA: Evidence from sta...
This paper uses state-level data to estimate the effect of government spending shocks during expansions and recessions. By employing a mixed-frequency framework, we are able to... -
Common correlated effect cross‐sectional dependence corrections for nonlinear...
This paper provides an approach to estimation and inference for nonlinear conditional mean panel data models, in the presence of cross-sectional dependence. We modify Pesaran's... -
Average treatment effects for stayers with correlated random coefficient mode...
Correlated random coefficient (CRC) models provide a useful framework for estimating average treatment effects (ATE) with panel data by accommodating heterogeneous treatment... -
Fixed effects demeaning in the presence of interactive effects in treatment e...
The present paper shows that cross-section demeaning with respect to time fixed effects is more useful than commonly appreciated, in that it enables consistent and... -
Who benefits from privileged peers? Evidence from siblings in schools (replic...
By comparing siblings attending the same school at different points in time, we investigate whether the effect of peer quality on long-term labor market outcomes varies with... -
The role of startups for local labor markets (replication data)
There are substantial differences in startup activity across US local labor markets. We study the causes and consequences of these differences. Startup productivity shocks are... -
Multidimensional skills and the returns to schooling: Evidence from an intera...
This paper presents new evidence on returns to schooling based on an interactive fixed-effects framework that allows for multiple unobserved skills with potentially time-varying... -
Is deflation costly after all? The perils of erroneous historical classificat...
I estimate average economic activity during periods of inflation and deflation while accounting for measurement errors in 19th century prices. These measurement errors lead to... -
A distributional synthetic control method for policy evaluation (replication ...
We extend the synthetic control method to evaluate the distributional effects of policy intervention in the possible presence of poor matching. The counterfactuals (or... -
Complementary Bayesian method of moments strategies (replication data)
Methodology is proposed that addresses two problems that arise in application of the generalized method of moments representation of the likelihood in Bayesian inference: (1) a... -
Comparing predictive accuracy in small samples using fixed‐smoothing asymptot...
We consider fixed-smoothing asymptotics for the Diebold and Mariano (Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 1995, 13(3), 253-263) test of predictive accuracy. We show that... -
Exchange rate predictability and dynamic Bayesian learning (replication data)
We consider how an investor in the foreign exchange market can exploit predictive information by means of flexible Bayesian inference. Using a variety of vector autoregressive...
