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Model selection with estimated factors and idiosyncratic components (replicat...
This paper provides consistent information criteria for the selection of forecasting models that use a subset of both the idiosyncratic and common factor components of a big... -
FORECASTING DISCONNECTED EXCHANGE RATES (replication data)
The inability of empirical models to forecast exchange rates has given rise to the belief that exchange rates are disconnected from macroeconomic fundamentals. This paper... -
Structural breaks and GARCH models of exchange rate volatility (replication d...
We investigate the empirical relevance of structural breaks for GARCH models of exchange rate volatility using both in-sample and out-of-sample tests. We find significant... -
Generalized long memory processes, failure of cointegration tests and exchang...
This paper presents evidence that the equilibrium relationship in a system of nominal exchange rates is best described as a stationary GARMA process. The implementation of the... -
Normal mixture GARCH(1,1): applications to exchange rate modelling (replicati...
Some recent specifications for GARCH error processes explicitly assume a conditional variance that is generated by a mixture of normal components, albeit with some parameter... -
A forecast comparison of volatility models: does anything beat a GARCH(1,1)? ...
We compare 330 ARCH-type models in terms of their ability to describe the conditional variance. The models are compared out-of-sample using DM?$ exchange rate data and IBM... -
Testing the unbiased forward exchange rate hypothesis using a Markov switchin...
This paper develops a model for the forward and spot exchange rate which allows for the presence of a Markov switching risk premium in the forward market and considers the issue... -
The transmission of US shocks to Latin America (replication data)
I study whether and how US shocks are transmitted to eight Latin American countries. US shocks are identified using sign restrictions and treated as exogenous with respect to... -
Conditional heteroscedasticity of exchange rates: further results based on th...
A recent article (Tse, 1998) published in this journal analysed the conditional heteroscedasticity of the yen-dollar exchange rate based on the fractionally integrated... -
Bridging the gap between the distribution of realized (ECU) volatility and AR...
This paper bridges the gap between traditional ARCH modelling and recent advances on realized volatilities. Based on a ten-year sample of five-minute returns for the ECU basket... -
Exchange rate target zone models: a Bayesian evaluation (replication data)
This paper develops a Bayesian approach to estimating exchange rate target zone models and rational expectations models in general. It also introduces a simultaneous-equation... -
Exchange rates and monetary fundamentals: what do we learn from long-horizon ...
The use of a new bootstrap method for small-sample inference in long-horizon regressions is illustrated by analysing the long-horizon predictability of four major exchange... -
An empirical application of stochastic volatility models (replication data)
This paper studies the empirical performance of stochastic volatility models for twenty years of weekly exchange rate data for four major currencies. We concentrate on the... -
The conditional heteroscedasticity of the yen-dollar exchange rate (replicati...
This paper examines the conditional heteroscedasticity of the yen-dollar exchange rate. A model is constructed by extending the asymmetric power autoregressive conditional... -
An EMS target zone model in discrete time (replication data)
The discrete time analogue of the continuous time Krugman target zone model is developed in order to capture the typical volatility clusters and fat-tailed distributed... -
FEASIBLE CROSS-VALIDATORY MODEL SELECTION FOR GENERAL STATIONARY PROCESSES (r...
Cross-validation is a method used to estimate the expected prediction error of a model. Such estimates may be of interest in themselves, but their use for model selection is... -
Regime switching as a test for exchange rate bubbles (replication data)
This paper develops a new test for speculative bubbles, which is applied to data for the Japanese yen, the German mark and the Canadian dollar exchange rates from 1977 to 1991.... -
Money stock targeting and money supply: A closer examination of the data (rep...
In a recent paper Mercenier and Sekkat (1988) use a linear-quadratic model to examine the willingness of a monetary authority in a small open economy to target its exchange... -
Forecasting exchange rates using feedforward and recurrent neural networks (r...
In this paper we investigate the out-of-sample forecasting ability of feedforward and recurrent neural networks based on empirical foreign exchange rate data. A two-step... -
Spectral tests of the martingale hypothesis for exchange rates (replication d...
A new family of spectral shape tests was proposed recently by Durlauf (1991) for testing the martingale hypothesis. Unlike the widely used variance ratio test, spectral shape...
