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Reassessing the Predictive Power of the Yield Spread for Recessions in the Un...
Details of the Data and Code for this paper are in readme_cv.pdf. Abstract Rudebusch and Williams (2009, RW) predict recessions in the United States utilising a probit model... -
Nowcasting Norwegian household consumption with debit card transaction data (...
This entry contains information about the data used in our analysis. The debit card transaction data that we use are confidential and cannot be made publicly available.... -
Peer desirability and academic achievement (replication data)
Replication materials for the paper “Peer desirability and academic achievement" by Adrian Mehic. It contains a readme file, one Excel document, and one Stata do file. -
Forecasting and stress testing with quantile vector autoregression (replicati...
Replication materials for "Forecasting and stress testing with quantile vector autoregression" by S. Chavleishvili and S. Manganelli, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2023,... -
Heterogeneous responses to corporate marginal tax rates: Evidence from small ...
Do small and large firms respond differently to tax cuts? Using new narrative measures of the exogenous variation in corporate marginal tax rates and a unique dataset of U.S.... -
Oil prices in the real economy (replication data)
Replication materials for "Oil prices in the real economy", by Haicheng Shu and Peter Spencer, Journal of Applied Econometrics, forthcoming. -
The Federal Reserve’s output gap: The unreliability of real-time reliability ...
Data Set and Online Appendix for: Josefine Quast and Maik H. Wolters, "The Federal Reserve’s Output Gap: The Unreliability of Real-Time Reliability Tests", Journal of Applied... -
Fiscal targets: A guide to forecasters? (replication data)
We formulate and estimate empirical models for a selection of EU countries (Germany, France, Italy, Spain, Portugal and Ireland) to show that ex-ante government (consumption)... -
Density Forecasting with BVAR Models under Macroeconomic Data Uncertainty (re...
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Recurrent conditional heteroskedasticity (replication data)
We propose a new class of financial volatility models, called the REcurrent Conditional Heteroskedastic (RECH) models, to improve both in-sample analysis and out-of-sample... -
A regularization approach to common correlated effects estimation (replicatio...
Cross-section average-augmented panel regressions introduced by Pesaran (2006) have been a popular empirical tool to estimate panel data models with common factors. However, the... -
An automated prior robustness analysis in Bayesian model comparison (replicat...
It is well-known that the marginal likelihood, the gold standard for Bayesian model comparison, can be sensitive to prior hyperparameter choices. However, most models require... -
Uncertain Kingdom: Nowcasting Gross Domestic Product and its revisions (repli...
We propose a release-augmented dynamic factor model (RA-DFM) that allows to quantify the role of a country's data flow in nowcasting both early Gross Domestic Product (GDP)... -
Interpretation of point forecasts with unknown directive (replication data)
Point forecasts can be interpreted as functionals (i.e., point summaries) of predictive distributions. We extend methodology for the identification of the functional based on... -
Is euro area lowflation here to stay? Insights from a time‐varying parameter ...
We build a time-varying parameter model that jointly explains the dynamics of euro area inflation and inflation expectations. Our goal is to explain the weak inflation during... -
Unobserved components with stochastic volatility: Simulation‐based estimation...
The unobserved components time series model with stochastic volatility has gained much interest in econometrics, especially for the purpose of modelling and forecasting... -
Multivariate fractional integration tests allowing for conditional heterosked...
We introduce a new joint test for the order of fractional integration of a multivariate fractionally integrated vector autoregressive (FIVAR) time series based on applying the... -
Testing for overconfidence statistically: A moment inequality approach (repli...
We propose a moment inequality approach to test for the presence of overconfidence using data from ranking experiments where subjects rank themselves relative to other... -
Exogenous uncertainty and the identification of structural vector autoregress...
We provide necessary and sufficient conditions for the identification (point-identification) of structural vector autoregressions (SVARs) with external instruments considering... -
A factor‐augmented vector autoregressive (FAVAR) approach for monetary policy...
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