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The Contribution of Structural Break Models to Forecasting Macroeconomic Seri...
This paper compares the forecasting performance of models that have been proposed for forecasting in the presence of structural breaks. They differ in their treatment of the... -
MODELLING REGIME SWITCHING AND STRUCTURAL BREAKS WITH AN INFINITE HIDDEN MARK...
This paper proposes an infinite hidden Markov model to integrate the regime switching and structural break dynamics in a unified Bayesian framework. Two parallel hierarchical... -
Learning, forecasting and structural breaks (replication data)
We provide a general methodology for forecasting in the presence of structural breaks induced by unpredictable changes to model parameters. Bayesian methods of learning and... -
Structural breaks and GARCH models of exchange rate volatility (replication d...
We investigate the empirical relevance of structural breaks for GARCH models of exchange rate volatility using both in-sample and out-of-sample tests. We find significant... -
Disaggregate evidence on the persistence of consumer price inflation (replica...
This paper uses disaggregate inflation data spanning all of consumption to examine: (i) the persistence of disaggregate inflation relative to aggregate inflation; (ii) the... -
Structural break threshold VARs for predicting US recessions using the spread...
This paper proposes a model to predict recessions that accounts for non-linearity and a structural break when the spread between long- and short-term interest rates is the... -
Timing structural change: a conditional probabilistic approach (replication d...
We propose a strategy for assessing structural stability in time-series frameworks when potential change dates are unknown. Existing stability tests are effective in detecting... -
Validating multiple structural change models-a case study (replication data)
In a recent article, Bai and Perron (2003, Journal of Applied Econometrics) present a comprehensive discussion of computational aspects of multiple structural change models... -
Monitoring structural change in dynamic econometric models (replication data)
The classical approach to testing for structural change employs retrospective tests using a historical data set of a given length. Here we consider a wide array of... -
A general test for time dependence in parameters (replication data)
A new test for time-dependent parameters is proposed. The Trig-test is based on a trigonometric expansion to approximate the unknown functional form of the variation in the... -
Detecting multiple breaks in financial market volatility dynamics (replicatio...
The paper evaluates the performance of several recently proposed tests for structural breaks in the conditional variance dynamics of asset returns. The tests apply to the class... -
Modelling UK inflation, 1875-1991 (replication data)
UK inflation has varied greatly in response to many economic policy and exchange-rate regime shifts, two world wars and two oil crises, as well as legislative and technological... -
US deficit sustainability: a new approach based on multiple endogenous breaks...
Recent empirical work has questioned the consistency of US fiscal policy with an intertemporal budget constraint. Empirical results have tended to indicate that the deficit...
