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Individual forecaster perceptions of the persistence of shocks to GDP (replic...
We analyse individual professional forecasters' beliefs concerning the persistence of GDP shocks. Despite substantial apparent heterogeneity in perceptions, with around one half... -
A factor‐augmented vector autoregressive (FAVAR) approach for monetary policy...
This dataset has no description
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Tests of Predictive Ability for Vector Autoregressions Used for Conditional F...
Many forecasts are conditional in nature. For example, a number of central banks routinely report forecasts conditional on particular paths of policy instruments. Even though... -
Exponent of Cross-Sectional Dependence: Estimation and Inference (replication...
This paper provides a characterisation of the degree of cross-sectional dependence in a two dimensional array, {xit,i = 1,2,...N;t = 1,2,...,T} in terms of the rate at which the... -
A Two-Stage Approach to Spatio-Temporal Analysis with Strong and Weak Cross-S...
An understanding of the spatial dimension of economic and social activity requires methods that can separate out the relationship between spatial units that is due to the effect... -
TESTS OF EQUAL FORECAST ACCURACY FOR OVERLAPPING MODELS (replication data)
This paper examines the asymptotic and finite-sample properties of tests of equal forecast accuracy when the models being compared are overlapping in the sense of Vuong... -
Testing distributional assumptions: A GMM aproach (replication data)
We consider testing distributional assumptions by using moment conditions. A general class of moment conditions satisfied under the null hypothesis is derived and connected to... -
A new poolability test for cointegrated panels (replication data)
This paper proposes a new test of the null hypothesis that the parameters in a cointegrated panel data regression are equal across the cross-section. The asymptotic distribution... -
Forecast encompassing tests and probability forecasts (replication data)
We consider tests of forecast encompassing for probability forecasts, for both quadratic and logarithmic scoring rules. We propose test statistics for the null of forecast... -
Averaging forecasts from VARs with uncertain instabilities (replication data)
Recent work suggests VAR models of output, inflation, and interest rates may be prone to instabilities. In the face of such instabilities, a variety of estimation or forecasting... -
Long-run trends in internal migrations in italy: a study in panel cointegrati...
The objective of this paper is to examine the long-run determinants of internal migrations from southern Italy. In order to accomplish this task, the paper develops a bootstrap... -
Unravelling financial market linkages during crises (replication data)
An empirical model of multiple asset classes across countries is formulated in a latent factor framework. A special feature of the model is that financial market linkages during... -
An evaluation of the forecasts of the federal reserve: a pooled approach (rep...
The Federal Reserve Greenbook forecasts of real GDP, inflation and unemployment are analysed for the period 1974-1997. We consider whether these forecasts exhibit systematic... -
Disaggregate evidence on the persistence of consumer price inflation (replica...
This paper uses disaggregate inflation data spanning all of consumption to examine: (i) the persistence of disaggregate inflation relative to aggregate inflation; (ii) the... -
Structural break threshold VARs for predicting US recessions using the spread...
This paper proposes a model to predict recessions that accounts for non-linearity and a structural break when the spread between long- and short-term interest rates is the... -
A joint model for the term structure of interest rates and the macroeconomy (...
We present and estimate a continuous time term structure model that incorporates observable macroeconomic variables and latent variables with a clear macroeconomic... -
Validating multiple structural change models-a case study (replication data)
In a recent article, Bai and Perron (2003, Journal of Applied Econometrics) present a comprehensive discussion of computational aspects of multiple structural change models... -
Parametric pricing of higher order moments in S&P500 options (replication...
A general parametric framework based on the generalized Student t-distribution is developed for pricing S&P500 options. Higher order moments in stock returns as well as... -
The Solow model with CES technology: nonlinearities and parameter heterogenei...
This paper examines whether nonlinearities in the aggregate production function can explain parameter heterogeneity in the Solow growth regressions. Nonlinearities in the... -
Evaluating interval forecasts of high-frequency financial data (replication d...
A number of methods of evaluating the validity of interval forecasts of financial data are analysed, and illustrated using intraday FTSE100 index futures returns. Some existing...
