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Real‐time detection of regimes of predictability in the US equity premium (re...
We propose new real-time monitoring procedures for the emergence of end-of-sample predictive regimes using sequential implementations of standard (heteroskedasticity-robust)... -
Robust political economy correlates of major product and labor market reforms...
The political economy literature has put forward a multitude of hypotheses regarding the drivers of structural reforms, but few, if any, empirically robust findings have emerged... -
Reevaluating the prudence of economic forecasts in the EU: The role of instru...
Christodoulakis and Mamatzakis (2009, Journal of Applied Econometrics 24, pp. 583-606) estimate the EU Commission loss preferences for selected economic forecasts of 12 EU... -
Estimation and inference for spatial models with heterogeneous coefficients: ...
This paper considers the estimation and inference of spatial panel data models with heterogeneous spatial lag coefficients, with and without weakly exogenous regressors, and... -
Average treatment effects for stayers with correlated random coefficient mode...
Correlated random coefficient (CRC) models provide a useful framework for estimating average treatment effects (ATE) with panel data by accommodating heterogeneous treatment... -
Fixed effects demeaning in the presence of interactive effects in treatment e...
The present paper shows that cross-section demeaning with respect to time fixed effects is more useful than commonly appreciated, in that it enables consistent and... -
Testing for correlation in error‐component models (replication data)
This paper concerns linear models for grouped data with group-specific effects. We construct a portmanteau test for the null of no within-group correlation beyond that induced... -
Testing for overconfidence statistically: A moment inequality approach (repli...
We propose a moment inequality approach to test for the presence of overconfidence using data from ranking experiments where subjects rank themselves relative to other... -
Direct and indirect effects of continuous treatments based on generalized pro...
This paper proposes semi- and nonparametric methods for disentangling the total causal effect of a continuous treatment on an outcome variable into its natural direct effect and... -
The informativeness of estimation moments (replication data)
This paper introduces measures for how each moment contributes to the precision of parameter estimates in generalized method of moments settings. For example, one of the... -
Perceived and actual option values of college enrollment (replication data)
An important feature of postsecondary schooling is the experimentation that accompanies sequential decision making. Specifically, by entering college, a student gains the option... -
Who benefits from privileged peers? Evidence from siblings in schools (replic...
By comparing siblings attending the same school at different points in time, we investigate whether the effect of peer quality on long-term labor market outcomes varies with... -
The evolution of the US family income–schooling relationship and educational ...
We estimate a dynamic model of schooling on two cohorts of the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth and find that, contrary to conventional wisdom, the effects of real (as... -
A cross‐section average‐based principal components approach for fixed‐T panel...
Because of the increased availability of large panel data sets, common factor models have become very popular. The workhorse of the literature is the principal components (PC)... -
Negative interest rate policy and the yield curve (replication data)
We evaluate the implications of the ECB's negative interest rate policy (NIRP) on the yield curve. To capture various shapes of the short end of the yield curve induced by the... -
Does drawing down the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve help stabilize oil price...
We study the effects of releases from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) within the context of fully specified models of the global oil market that explicitly allow for... -
Replicating the Levitt and Porter estimates of drunk driving (replication data)
Estimates of the prevalence and risk of drinking-and-driving are a high-priority need for researchers and policymakers. Levitt and Porter (Journal of Political Economy, 2001,... -
Differencing versus nondifferencing in factor‐based forecasting (replication ...
This paper studies performance of factor-based forecasts using differenced and nondifferenced data. Approximate variances of forecasting errors from the two forecasts are... -
Composite likelihood methods for large Bayesian VARs with stochastic volatili...
Adding multivariate stochastic volatility of a flexible form to large vector autoregressions (VARs) involving over 100 variables has proved challenging owing to computational... -
The role of startups for local labor markets (replication data)
There are substantial differences in startup activity across US local labor markets. We study the causes and consequences of these differences. Startup productivity shocks are...
