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Dynamic factor model with infinite‐dimensional factor space: Forecasting (rep...
The paper compares the pseudo real-time forecasting performance of three dynamic factor models: (i) the standard principal component model introduced by Stock and Watson in... -
Measuring crisis risk using conditional copulas: An empirical analysis of the...
The shipping crisis starting in 2008 was characterized by sharply decreasing freight rates and sharply increasing financing costs. We analyze the dependence structure of these... -
Do contractionary monetary policy shocks expand shadow banking? (replication ...
Using VAR models for the USA, we find that a contractionary monetary policy shock has a persistent negative impact on the level of commercial bank assets, but increases the... -
Multivariate choices and identification of social interactions (replication d...
This paper considers the identification of social interaction effects in the context of multivariate choices. First, we generalize the theoretical social interaction model to... -
Estimating the economic costs of organized crime by synthetic control methods...
The economic costs of organized crime have been estimated for the case of southern Italy by Pinotti (Economic Journal 2015; 125, F203?F232, 2015): using synthetic control... -
Out-of-Sample Return Predictability: A Quantile Combination Approach (replica...
This paper develops a novel forecasting method that minimizes the effects of weak predictors and estimation errors on the accuracy of equity premium forecasts. The proposed... -
Likelihood-Based Inference and Prediction in Spatio-Temporal Panel Count Mode...
We develop a panel count model with a latent spatio-temporal heterogeneous state process for monthly severe crimes at the census-tract level in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. Our... -
The Millennium Peak in Club Convergence: A New Look at Distributional Changes...
This paper proposes an easy-to-use nonparametric indicator for club convergence, or convergence within clusters of countries: it measures whether the modes of the gross domestic... -
Transitions at Different Moments in Time: A Spatial Probit Approach (replicat...
This paper adopts a spatial probit approach to explain interaction effects among cross-sectional units when the dependent variable takes the form of a binary response variable... -
Optimal Portfolio Choice Under Decision‐Based Model Combinations (replication...
We propose a density combination approach featuring combination weights that depend on the past forecast performance of the individual models entering the combination through a... -
A Semi-Parametric Analysis of Two-Sided Markets: An Application to the Local ...
This paper considers an empirical semiparametric model for two-sided markets. Contrary to existing empirical literature on two-sided markets, we specify network effects and... -
The Zero Lower Bound and Parameter Bias in an Estimated DSGE Model (replicati...
This paper examines how and to what extent parameter estimates can be biased in a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model that omits the zero lower bound (ZLB)... -
A Two-Stage Approach to Spatio-Temporal Analysis with Strong and Weak Cross-S...
An understanding of the spatial dimension of economic and social activity requires methods that can separate out the relationship between spatial units that is due to the effect... -
Firm-Level Productivity Spillovers in China's Chemical Industry: A Spatial Ha...
This paper assesses intra-sectoral spillovers in total factor productivity (TFP) across Chinese producers in the chemical industry using panel data on 12,552 firms observed over... -
Refining Stylized Facts from Factor Models of Inflation (replication data)
Factor models of disaggregate inflation indices suggest that sectoral shocks generate the bulk of sectoral inflation variance, but no persistence. Aggregate shocks, by contrast,... -
Replacing Sample Trimming with Boundary Correction in Nonparametric Estimatio...
Two-step nonparametric estimators have become standard in empirical auctions. A drawback concerns boundary effects which cause inconsistencies near the endpoints of the support... -
Using OLS to Estimate and Test for Structural Changes in Models with Endogeno...
We consider the problem of estimating and testing for multiple breaks in a single-equation framework with regressors that are endogenous, i.e. correlated with the errors. We... -
HOW BELIEFS ABOUT HIV STATUS AFFECT RISKY BEHAVIORS: EVIDENCE FROM MALAWI (re...
This paper examines how beliefs about own HIV status affect decisions to engage in risky sexual behavior, as measured by having extramarital sex and/or multiple sex partners.... -
A MOMENT-MATCHING METHOD FOR APPROXIMATING VECTOR AUTOREGRESSIVE PROCESSES BY...
This paper proposes a moment-matching method for approximating vector autoregressions by finite-state Markov chains. The Markov chain is constructed by targeting the conditional... -
MULTIPLE TESTING AND HETEROGENEOUS TREATMENT EFFECTS: RE-EVALUATING THE EFFEC...
The effect of a program or treatment may vary according to observed characteristics. In such a setting, it may not only be of interest to determine whether the program or...
