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A comprehensive look at financial volatility prediction by economic variables...
We investigate whether return volatility is predictable by macroeconomic and financial variables to shed light on the economic drivers of financial volatility. Our approach is... -
Evaluating density forecasts: forecast combinations, model mixtures, calibrat...
This paper reviews current density forecast evaluation procedures, and considers a proposal that such procedures be augmented by an assessment of sharpness. This was motivated... -
Modeling and forecasting short-term interest rates: The benefits of smooth re...
In this paper we propose a smooth transition tree model for both the conditional mean and variance of the short-term interest rate process. The estimation of such models is... -
Forecasting large datasets with Bayesian reduced rank multivariate models (re...
The paper addresses the issue of forecasting a large set of variables using multivariate models. In particular, we propose three alternative reduced rank forecasting models and... -
Assessing the prudence of economic forecasts in the EU (replication data)
We estimate the EU Commission loss preferences for major economic forecasts of 12 Member States. Based on a recently proposed method by Elliott, Komunjer and Timmermann (2005)... -
Does the option market produce superior forecasts of noise-corrected volatili...
This paper assesses the robustness of the relative performance of spot? and options-based volatility forecasts to the treatment of microstructure noise. Robustness of the... -
Learning, forecasting and structural breaks (replication data)
We provide a general methodology for forecasting in the presence of structural breaks induced by unpredictable changes to model parameters. Bayesian methods of learning and... -
Model-free evaluation of directional predictability in foreign exchange marke...
We examine directional predictability in foreign exchange markets using a model-free statistical evaluation procedure. Based on a sample of foreign exchange spot rates and... -
An evaluation of the forecasts of the federal reserve: a pooled approach (rep...
The Federal Reserve Greenbook forecasts of real GDP, inflation and unemployment are analysed for the period 1974-1997. We consider whether these forecasts exhibit systematic... -
Modelling multi-period inflation uncertainty using a panel of density forecas...
This paper examines the determinants of inflation forecast uncertainty using a panel of density forecasts from the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF). Based on a dynamic... -
How quickly do forecasters incorporate news? Evidence from cross-country surv...
Using forecasts from Consensus Economics Inc., we provide evidence on the efficiency of real GDP growth forecasts by testing whether forecast revisions are uncorrelated. As the... -
Permanent vs transitory components and economic fundamentals (replication data)
Any non-stationary series can be decomposed into permanent (or trend) and transitory (or cycle) components. Typically some atheoretic pre-filtering procedure is applied to... -
Structural break threshold VARs for predicting US recessions using the spread...
This paper proposes a model to predict recessions that accounts for non-linearity and a structural break when the spread between long- and short-term interest rates is the... -
Estimating and predicting multivariate volatility thresholds in global stock ...
We propose a general double tree structured AR-GARCH model for the analysis of global equity index returns. The model extends previous approaches by incorporating (i) several... -
A forecast comparison of volatility models: does anything beat a GARCH(1,1)? ...
We compare 330 ARCH-type models in terms of their ability to describe the conditional variance. The models are compared out-of-sample using DM?$ exchange rate data and IBM... -
Modelling and forecasting stock returns: exploiting the futures market, regim...
This paper proposes a vector equilibrium correction model of stock returns that exploits the information in the futures market, while allowing for both regime-switching... -
Valuation ratios and long-horizon stock price predictability (replication data)
Using annual data for 1872-1997, this paper re-examines the predictability of real stock prices based on price-dividend and price-earnings ratios. In line with the extant... -
Can inflation data improve the real-time reliability of output gap estimates?...
Potential output plays a central role in monetary policy and short-term macroeconomic policy making. Yet, characterizing the output gap involves a trend-cycle decomposition, and... -
Evaluating interval forecasts of high-frequency financial data (replication d...
A number of methods of evaluating the validity of interval forecasts of financial data are analysed, and illustrated using intraday FTSE100 index futures returns. Some existing... -
Censored latent effects autoregression, with an application to US unemploymen...
A model is proposed to describe observed asymmetries in postwar unemployment time series data. We assume that recession periods, when unemployment increases rapidly, correspond...
