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MODELLING REGIME SWITCHING AND STRUCTURAL BREAKS WITH AN INFINITE HIDDEN MARK...
This paper proposes an infinite hidden Markov model to integrate the regime switching and structural break dynamics in a unified Bayesian framework. Two parallel hierarchical... -
CONSTRUCTING OPTIMAL DENSITY FORECASTS FROM POINT FORECAST COMBINATIONS (repl...
Decision makers often observe point forecasts of the same variable computed, for instance, by commercial banks, IMF and the World Bank, but the econometric models used by such... -
WHO BENEFITS FROM JOB CORPS? A DISTRIBUTIONAL ANALYSIS OF AN ACTIVE LABOR MAR...
Using recently developed econometric techniques to estimate quantile treatment effects (QTE) and experimental data, we examine the impact of Job Corps on earnings distribution.... -
STRATEGIC ASSET ALLOCATION FOR LONG-TERM INVESTORS: PARAMETER UNCERTAINTY AND...
We study the effect of parameter uncertainty on the long-run risk for three asset classes: stocks, bills and bonds. Using a Bayesian vector autoregression with an uninformative... -
MODELLING LARGE OPEN ECONOMIES WITH INTERNATIONAL LINKAGES: THE USA AND EURO ...
Empirical modelling of the linkages between the euro area and the USA requires an open economy framework. The methodology proposed in this paper achieves identification of a... -
ENJOYING THE QUIET LIFE UNDER DEREGULATION? NOT QUITE (replication data)
Most empirical studies in the banking literature assume that the alternative profit function is linearly homogeneous in input prices. We show that such an assumption is... -
DIVORCE LAW REFORMS AND DIVORCE RATES IN THE USA: AN INTERACTIVE FIXED-EFFECT...
This paper estimates the effects of unilateral divorce laws on divorce rates in the USA from a panel of state-level divorce rates. We use the interactive fixed-effects model to... -
FIRM HETEROGENEITY, PERSISTENT AND TRANSIENT TECHNICAL INEFFICIENCY: A GENERA...
This paper considers a panel data stochastic frontier model that disentangles unobserved firm effects (firm heterogeneity) from persistent (time-invariant/long-term) and... -
SMOOTH DYNAMIC FACTOR ANALYSIS WITH APPLICATION TO THE US TERM STRUCTURE OF I...
We consider the dynamic factor model and show how smoothness restrictions can be imposed on factor loadings by using cubic spline functions. We develop statistical procedures... -
INFORMATION IN THE YIELD CURVE: A MACRO-FINANCE APPROACH (replication data)
We use a macro-finance model, incorporating macroeconomic and financial factors, to study the term premium in the US bond market. Estimating the model using Bayesian techniques,... -
Estimation of Treatment Effects without an Exclusion Restriction: with an App...
The increase in childhood obesity has garnered the attention of many in policymaking circles. Consequently, school nutrition programs such as the School Breakfast Program (SBP)... -
WAS THE GOLD STANDARD REALLY DESTABILIZING? (replication data)
This paper investigates the extent to which the high macroeconomic volatility experienced in the classical Gold Standard era of US history can be attributed to the monetary... -
Macroeconomic forecasting and structural change (replication data)
The aim of this paper is to assess whether modeling structural change can help improving the accuracy of macroeconomic forecasts. We conduct a simulated real-time out-of-sample... -
An alternative measure of intergenerational income mobility based on a random...
We propose an alternative measure of the degree to which income status is transmitted from one generation to another. Our indicator of intergenerational income mobility is based... -
Risk aversion, intertemporal substitution, and the term structure of interest...
We build and estimate an equilibrium model of the term structure of interest rates based on a recursive utility specification. We contrast it with an arbitrage-free model, where... -
Estimating the effect of a gasoline tax on carbon emissions (replication data)
Recently the proposal has been made to raise gasoline taxes in the United States to curb carbon emissions. The existing literature on the sensitivity of gasoline consumption to... -
Competition in large markets (replication data)
This paper evaluates the simplifying assumption that producers compete in a large market without substantial strategic interactions using nonparametric regressions of producers'... -
Factor analysis of permanent and transitory dynamics of the US economy and th...
We analyze dynamics of the permanent and transitory components of the US economic activity and the stock market obtained by multivariate dynamic factor modeling. We capture... -
Stocks, bonds, money markets and exchange rates: measuring international fina...
Understanding the complexity of the financial transmission process across various assets-domestically as well as within and across asset classes-requires the simultaneous... -
Modeling and forecasting short-term interest rates: The benefits of smooth re...
In this paper we propose a smooth transition tree model for both the conditional mean and variance of the short-term interest rate process. The estimation of such models is...
