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Expectation horizon and the Phillips Curve: the solution to an empirical puzz...
Estimates of the slope of the Phillips curve reported in the literature cover a range from roughly ? 0.6 to zero depending on specification. Forward-looking specifications,... -
Exploring the international linkages of the euro area: a global VAR analysis ...
This paper presents a quarterly global model combining individual country vector error-correcting models in which the domestic variables are related to the country-specific... -
An evaluation of the forecasts of the federal reserve: a pooled approach (rep...
The Federal Reserve Greenbook forecasts of real GDP, inflation and unemployment are analysed for the period 1974-1997. We consider whether these forecasts exhibit systematic... -
The transmission mechanism in a changing world (replication data)
The paper aims to identify those factors that cause changes in the speed and strength of the international transmission of output shocks from the USA to specified European... -
Modelling multi-period inflation uncertainty using a panel of density forecas...
This paper examines the determinants of inflation forecast uncertainty using a panel of density forecasts from the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF). Based on a dynamic... -
Inter-state dynamics of invention activities, 1930–2000 (replication data)
We study the dynamics of the cross-section distribution of patents per capita for the 48 continental US states from 1930 to 2000 using a discrete-state Markov chain. We test for... -
A re-interpretation of the linear quadratic model when inventories and sales ...
Estimation of the linear quadratic model, the workhorse of the inventory literature, traditionally takes inventories and sales to be first-difference stationary series, and the... -
Is there a risk–return trade-off? Evidence from high-frequency data (replicat...
This paper examines the intertemporal relation between risk and return for the aggregate stock market using high-frequency data. We use daily realized, GARCH, implied, and... -
The welfare effects of restricted hospital choice in the US medical care mark...
Managed care health insurers in the USA restrict their enrollees' choice of hospitals to within specific networks. This paper considers the implications of these restrictions. A... -
Age–period–cohort decomposition of aggregate data: an application to US and J...
This paper compares two methods of analyzing aggregate data that is classified by period and age. Because there is a linear relationship among age, period, and cohort, it is not... -
Bayesian analysis of the two-part model with endogeneity: application to heal...
This paper studies the effect of managed care on medical expenditure using a model in which the insurance status is assumed to be endogenous. Insurance plan choice is modeled... -
Health insurance and retirement of married couples (replication data)
Most health insurance in the USA is provided by employers until eligibility for public health insurance (Medicare) begins at age 65. Retiring before 65 exposes workers who lack... -
The emerging market crisis and stock market linkages: further evidence (repli...
This study examines the long-run price relationship and the dynamic price transmission among the USA, Germany, and four major Eastern European emerging stock markets, with... -
Wealth dynamics: reducing noise in panel data (replication data)
Although the asset data from the Health and Retirement Study (HRS) is of very high quality, there is sufficient noise to frustrate attempts to study saving behaviour by... -
Inference in dynamic stochastic frontier models (replication data)
An important issue in models of technical efficiency measurement concerns the temporal behaviour of inefficiency. Consideration of dynamic models is necessary but inference in... -
Disaggregate evidence on the persistence of consumer price inflation (replica...
This paper uses disaggregate inflation data spanning all of consumption to examine: (i) the persistence of disaggregate inflation relative to aggregate inflation; (ii) the... -
Structural break threshold VARs for predicting US recessions using the spread...
This paper proposes a model to predict recessions that accounts for non-linearity and a structural break when the spread between long- and short-term interest rates is the... -
A joint model for the term structure of interest rates and the macroeconomy (...
We present and estimate a continuous time term structure model that incorporates observable macroeconomic variables and latent variables with a clear macroeconomic... -
Estimating the effect of smoking on birth outcomes using a matched panel data...
Estimating the casual effect of smoking on birth outcomes is difficult since omitted (unobserved) variables are likely to be correlated with a mother's decision to smoke. While... -
Magazine prices revisited (replication data)
This paper examines price adjustment behaviour in the magazine industry. In a frequently cited study, Cecchetti (1986) constructs a reduced-form (S, s) model for firms....
