-
Individual forecaster perceptions of the persistence of shocks to GDP (replic...
We analyse individual professional forecasters' beliefs concerning the persistence of GDP shocks. Despite substantial apparent heterogeneity in perceptions, with around one half... -
A factor‐augmented vector autoregressive (FAVAR) approach for monetary policy...
This dataset has no description
-
Tests of Predictive Ability for Vector Autoregressions Used for Conditional F...
Many forecasts are conditional in nature. For example, a number of central banks routinely report forecasts conditional on particular paths of policy instruments. Even though... -
Structural break threshold VARs for predicting US recessions using the spread...
This paper proposes a model to predict recessions that accounts for non-linearity and a structural break when the spread between long- and short-term interest rates is the...
