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Reassessing the Predictive Power of the Yield Spread for Recessions in the Un...
Details of the Data and Code for this paper are in readme_cv.pdf. Abstract Rudebusch and Williams (2009, RW) predict recessions in the United States utilising a probit model... -
The Nonlinear Dynamics of Corporate Bond Spreads: Regime-Dependent Effects of...
This paper studies the behavior of corporate bond spreads during different market regimes between 2004 and 2016. Applying a Markov-switching vector autoregressive (MS-VAR)... -
Projecting the Spread of COVID19 for Germany
We model the evolution of the number of individuals reported sick with COVID-19 in Germany. Our theoretical framework builds on a continuous time Markov chain with four states:... -
Thoughts on a Fiscal Union in EMU
Using an estimated large-scale New-Keynesian model, we assess the consequences of introducing a fiscal union within EMU. We differentiate between three different scenarios:... -
Credit Demand and Supply in Greece
Contains data used in the paper "Measuring Credit Demand and Supply: A Bayesian Model with an Application to Greece (2003–2011)" (published in the Jahrbücher für... -
Banking Overleveraging and Macro Instability: A Model and VSTAR Estimations-r...
Overleveraging of the banking sector has been considered one of the main causes of the 2007--09 financial crisis and the subsequent great recession. It was also of major concern...
