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A Hidden Markov Model Approach to Information-Based Trading: Theory and Appli...
This paper develops a novel approach to information-based securities trading by characterizing the hidden state of the market, which varies following a Markov process. Extensive... -
Anticipating Long-Term Stock Market Volatility (replication data)
We investigate the relationship between long-term US stock market risks and the macroeconomic environment using a two-component GARCH-MIDAS model. Our results show that... -
Extracting Nonlinear Signals from Several Economic Indicators (replication data)
We develop a twofold analysis of how the information provided by several economic indicators can be used in Markov switching dynamic factor models to identify the business cycle... -
What Drives Oil Prices? Emerging Versus Developed Economies (replication data)
We explore the role of demand from emerging and developed economies as drivers of the real price of oil. Using a FAVAR model that identifies shocks from different regions of the... -
On the Empirical Failure of Purchasing Power Parity Tests (replication data)
Empirical research on the validity of the purchasing power parity (PPP) condition is generally based on real exchange rates built using the consumer price index (CPI), but fails... -
Commodity Price Volatility and the Sources of Growth (replication data)
This paper studies the impact of the growth and volatility of commodity terms of trade (CToT) on economic growth, total factor productivity, physical capital accumulation and... -
Doubly Robust Estimation of Causal Effects with Multivalued Treatments: An Ap...
This paper provides doubly robust estimators for treatment effect parameters which are defined in a multivalued treatment effect framework. We apply this method to the unique... -
When Does the Stepping-Stone Work? Fixed-Term Contracts Versus Temporary Agen...
This paper emphasizes differences among short-term contracts in terms of career prospects. Using French data over the 2002-2010 period, we rely on a dynamic model with fixed... -
Narrow Replication of ‘A Spatio-Temporal Model of House Prices in the Usa’ Us...
I narrowly replicate Holly et al.'s (Journal of Econometrics 2010; 158(1): 160-173) analysis of the housing market in the USA, using the open source R software instead of the... -
The Contribution of Structural Break Models to Forecasting Macroeconomic Seri...
This paper compares the forecasting performance of models that have been proposed for forecasting in the presence of structural breaks. They differ in their treatment of the... -
Monetary Policy and the Housing Market: A Structural Factor Analysis (replica...
This paper studies the role of the Federal Reserve's policy in the recent boom and bust of the housing market, and in the ensuing recession. By estimating a structural dynamic... -
Do High-Frequency Data Improve High-Dimensional Portfolio Allocations? (repli...
This paper addresses the debate about the usefulness of high-frequency (HF) data in large-scale portfolio allocation. We construct global minimum variance portfolios based on... -
Evaluating Point and Density Forecasts of DSGE Models (replication data)
This paper investigates the accuracy of forecasts from four dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models for inflation, output growth and the federal funds rate using a... -
When Does Government Debt Crowd Out Investment? (replication data)
We examine when government debt crowds out investment for the US economy using an estimated New Keynesian model with detailed fiscal specifications and accounting for monetary... -
Career Planning, School Grades, and Transitions: The Last Two Years in a Germ...
In Germany, students in lower track secondary schools (LTSS) typically receive intensive career guidance. Nevertheless, the majority of LTSS student graduates does not start an... -
Youth unemployment after apprenticeship training and individual, occupation a...
This paper analyses the risk of unemployment, unemployment duration, and the risk of longterm unemployment immediately after apprenticeship graduation. Unemployed apprenticeship... -
Why We Should Use High Values for the Smoothing Parameter of the Hodrick-Pres...
The HP filter is the most popular filter for extracting the unobserved trend and cycle components from a time series. Many researchers consider the smoothing parameter λ = 1600... -
Youth Unemployment in the OECD: The Role of Institutions
This paper analyses the risk of unemployment, unemployment duration, and the risk of longterm unemployment immediately after apprenticeship graduation. Unemployed apprenticeship... -
Intergenerational transmission of unemployment - evidence for German sons (re...
This paper studies the association between the unemployment experience of fathers and their sons. Based on German survey data that cover the last decades we find significant... -
Intergenerational Transmission of Unemployment (Replication Data)
The study uses data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (GSOEP) provided by the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW). Data access will be granted after signing a...