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Structural FECM: Cointegration in large‐scale structural FAVAR models (replic...
Starting from the dynamic factor model for nonstationary data we derive the factor-augmented error correction model (FECM) and its moving-average representation. The latter is... -
Monetary Policy and Asset Prices: A Markov-Switching DSGE Approach (replicati...
This paper estimates a Markov-switching dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model by incorporating stock prices in monetary policy rules in order to identify the Federal... -
On the Stability of the Excess Sensitivity of Aggregate Consumption Growth in...
This paper investigates whether there is time variation in the excess sensitivity of aggregate consumption growth to anticipated aggregate disposable income growth using... -
Density Forecasts With Midas Models (replication data)
We propose a parametric block wild bootstrap approach to compute density forecasts for various types of mixed-data sampling (MIDAS) regressions. First, Monte Carlo simulations... -
Inside the Crystal Ball: New Approaches to Predicting the Gasoline Price at t...
Appropriate real-time forecasting models for the US retail price of gasoline yield substantial reductions in the mean-squared prediction error (MSPE) at horizons up to 2 years... -
Time Variation in Macro-Financial Linkages (replication data)
We analyze the contribution of credit spread, house and stock price shocks to the US economy based on a time-varying parameter vector autoregressive model. We find that the... -
Accounting for the Political Uncertainty Factor (replication data)
We build our analysis upon previous work by Bloom et al. (Measuring the Effect of Political Uncertainty. Working Paper, Stanford University, 2012) and Baker et al. (Political... -
Modelling Inflation Volatility (replication data)
This paper discusses estimation of US inflation volatility using time-varying parameter models, in particular whether it should be modelled as a stationary or random walk... -
Empirical Tests of the Pollution Haven Hypothesis When Environmental Regulati...
The pollution haven hypothesis (PHH) posits that production within polluting industries will shift to locations with lax environmental regulation. While straightforward, the... -
Forecast Rationality Tests in the Presence of Instabilities, with Application...
This paper proposes a framework to implement regression-based tests of predictive ability in unstable environments, including, in particular, forecast unbiasedness and... -
On the Low-Frequency Relationship Between Public Deficits and Inflation (repl...
We estimate the low-frequency relationship between fiscal deficits and inflation and pay special attention to its potential time variation by estimating a time-varying vector... -
A Hidden Markov Model Approach to Information-Based Trading: Theory and Appli...
This paper develops a novel approach to information-based securities trading by characterizing the hidden state of the market, which varies following a Markov process. Extensive... -
Anticipating Long-Term Stock Market Volatility (replication data)
We investigate the relationship between long-term US stock market risks and the macroeconomic environment using a two-component GARCH-MIDAS model. Our results show that... -
Extracting Nonlinear Signals from Several Economic Indicators (replication data)
We develop a twofold analysis of how the information provided by several economic indicators can be used in Markov switching dynamic factor models to identify the business cycle... -
Monetary Policy and the Housing Market: A Structural Factor Analysis (replica...
This paper studies the role of the Federal Reserve's policy in the recent boom and bust of the housing market, and in the ensuing recession. By estimating a structural dynamic... -
POSTERIOR‐PREDICTIVE EVIDENCE ON US INFLATION USING EXTENDED NEW KEYNESIAN PH...
Changing time series properties of US inflation and economic activity, measured as marginal costs, are modeled within a set of extended New Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC)... -
SMOOTH QUANTILE-BASED MODELING OF BRAND SALES, PRICE AND PROMOTIONAL EFFECTS ...
Semiparametric quantile regression is employed to flexibly estimate sales response for frequently purchased consumer goods. Using retail store-level data, we compare the... -
Estimation of Treatment Effects without an Exclusion Restriction: with an App...
The increase in childhood obesity has garnered the attention of many in policymaking circles. Consequently, school nutrition programs such as the School Breakfast Program (SBP)... -
An alternative measure of intergenerational income mobility based on a random...
We propose an alternative measure of the degree to which income status is transmitted from one generation to another. Our indicator of intergenerational income mobility is based... -
Consumer benefits from increased competition in shopping outlets: Measuring t...
Non-traditional retail outlets, including supercenters, warehouse club stores, and mass merchandisers, have nearly doubled their share of consumer food-at-home expenditures in...
