-
How to Identify and Forecast Bull and Bear Markets? (replication data)
Because the state of the equity market is latent, several methods have been proposed to identify past and current states of the market and forecast future ones. These methods... -
Modelling Inflation Volatility (replication data)
This paper discusses estimation of US inflation volatility using time-varying parameter models, in particular whether it should be modelled as a stationary or random walk... -
Anticipating Long-Term Stock Market Volatility (replication data)
We investigate the relationship between long-term US stock market risks and the macroeconomic environment using a two-component GARCH-MIDAS model. Our results show that... -
Commodity Price Volatility and the Sources of Growth (replication data)
This paper studies the impact of the growth and volatility of commodity terms of trade (CToT) on economic growth, total factor productivity, physical capital accumulation and... -
THE ROLE OF TIME-VARYING PRICE ELASTICITIES IN ACCOUNTING FOR VOLATILITY CHAN...
There has been a systematic increase in the volatility of the real price of crude oil since 1986, followed by a decline in the volatility of oil production since the early... -
A comprehensive look at financial volatility prediction by economic variables...
We investigate whether return volatility is predictable by macroeconomic and financial variables to shed light on the economic drivers of financial volatility. Our approach is... -
A forecast comparison of volatility models: does anything beat a GARCH(1,1)? ...
We compare 330 ARCH-type models in terms of their ability to describe the conditional variance. The models are compared out-of-sample using DM?$ exchange rate data and IBM...
