-
Anchoring the yield curve using survey expectations (replication data)
The dynamic behavior of the term structure of interest rates is difficult to replicate with models, and even models with a proven track record of empirical performance have... -
Estimation and Solution of Models with Expectations and Structural Changes (r...
In this paper, we develop solutions for linearized models with forward-looking expectations and structural changes under a variety of assumptions regarding agents' beliefs about... -
Inside the Crystal Ball: New Approaches to Predicting the Gasoline Price at t...
Appropriate real-time forecasting models for the US retail price of gasoline yield substantial reductions in the mean-squared prediction error (MSPE) at horizons up to 2 years... -
INFORMATION IN THE YIELD CURVE: A MACRO-FINANCE APPROACH (replication data)
We use a macro-finance model, incorporating macroeconomic and financial factors, to study the term premium in the US bond market. Estimating the model using Bayesian techniques,... -
Eliciting probabilistic expectations with visual aids in developing countries...
Eliciting subjective probability distributions in developing countries is often based on visual aids such as beans to represent probabilities and intervals on a sheet of paper... -
Binary choice under social interactions: an empirical study with and without ...
This paper examines two methods of modeling binary choice with social interactions: models assuming homogeneous rational expectations and models using subjective data on... -
Quasi-rational andex ante price expectations in commodity supply models: an e...
A statistically optimal inference about agents' ex ante price expectations within the US broiler market is derived using futures prices of related commodities along with a... -
Alternative procedures for converting qualitative response data to quantitati...
This paper analyses and extends alternative procedures for converting qualitative expectations responses to quantitative expectations. A number of conversion procedures is...
