-
Structural FECM: Cointegration in large‐scale structural FAVAR models (replic...
Starting from the dynamic factor model for nonstationary data we derive the factor-augmented error correction model (FECM) and its moving-average representation. The latter is... -
Anchoring the yield curve using survey expectations (replication data)
The dynamic behavior of the term structure of interest rates is difficult to replicate with models, and even models with a proven track record of empirical performance have... -
Tests of Predictive Ability for Vector Autoregressions Used for Conditional F...
Many forecasts are conditional in nature. For example, a number of central banks routinely report forecasts conditional on particular paths of policy instruments. Even though... -
Inside the Crystal Ball: New Approaches to Predicting the Gasoline Price at t...
Appropriate real-time forecasting models for the US retail price of gasoline yield substantial reductions in the mean-squared prediction error (MSPE) at horizons up to 2 years... -
Sharp IV Bounds on Average Treatment Effects on the Treated and Other Populat...
In the presence of an endogenous binary treatment and a valid binary instrument, causal effects are point identified only for the subpopulation of compliers, given that the... -
Exponent of Cross-Sectional Dependence: Estimation and Inference (replication...
This paper provides a characterisation of the degree of cross-sectional dependence in a two dimensional array, {xit,i = 1,2,...N;t = 1,2,...,T} in terms of the rate at which the... -
Factor-Based Identification-Robust Interference in IV Regressions (replicatio...
Robust methods for instrumental variable inference have received considerable attention recently. Their analysis has raised a variety of problematic issues such as size/power... -
Econometric Methods for Modelling Systems With a Mixture of<i>i</i>(1) and<i>...
This paper considers structural models with both I(1) and I(0) variables. The structural shocks associated with either set of variables could be permanent or transitory. We... -
Sequential Monte Carlo Methods for Estimating Dynamic Microeconomic Models (r...
This paper develops estimators for dynamic microeconomic models with serially correlated unobserved state variables using sequential Monte Carlo methods to estimate the... -
Lasso for Instrumental Variable Selection: A Replication Study (replication d...
Recently, Lasso methods have been applied to economic questions. In a seminal paper, Belloni et al. (Econometrica; 80(6): 2369-2429) make use of (post-)Lasso for instrumental... -
Local Adaptive Multiplicative Error Models for High-Frequency Forecasts (repl...
We propose a local adaptive multiplicative error model (MEM) accommodating time-varying parameters. MEM parameters are adaptively estimated based on a sequential testing... -
Missing in Asynchronicity: A Kalman-em Approach for Multivariate Realized Cov...
Motivated by the need for a positive-semidefinite estimator of multivariate realized covariance matrices, we model noisy and asynchronous ultra-high-frequency asset prices in a... -
Volatility of Price Indices for Heterogeneous Goods with Applications to the ...
Price indices for heterogeneous goods such as real estate or fine art constitute crucial information for institutional or private investors considering alternative investment... -
SEQUENTIAL MONTE CARLO SAMPLING FOR DSGE MODELS (replication data)
We develop a sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithm for estimating Bayesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models; wherein a particle approximation to the... -
PRACTICAL TOOLS FOR POLICY ANALYSIS IN DSGE MODELS WITH MISSING SHOCKS (repli...
In this paper we analyze the propagation of shocks originating in sectors that are not present in a baseline dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. Specifically,... -
Forecasting interest rates with shifting endpoints (replication data)
We consider forecasting the term structure of interest rates with the assumption that factors driving the yield curve are stationary around a slowly time-varying mean or... -
THE ROLE OF CONDITIONAL HETEROSKEDASTICITY IN IDENTIFYING AND ESTIMATING LINE...
A new estimator is proposed for linear triangular systems, where identification results from the model errors following a bivariate and diagonal GARCH(1,1) process with... -
THE DYNAMICS OF REAL EXCHANGE RATES: A RECONSIDERATION (replication data)
In this paper we offer a bootstrap-based version of the Cox specification test for non-nested hypothesis to discriminate between ESTAR and MSAR models. Both models are commonly... -
FORECASTING DISCONNECTED EXCHANGE RATES (replication data)
The inability of empirical models to forecast exchange rates has given rise to the belief that exchange rates are disconnected from macroeconomic fundamentals. This paper... -
DISENTANGLING DEMAND AND SUPPLY SHOCKS IN THE CRUDE OIL MARKET: HOW TO CHECK ...
Sign restrictions have become increasingly popular for identifying shocks in structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) models. So far there are no techniques for validating the...
