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A direct approach to Kilian--Lewis style counterfactual analysis in VAR model...
This paper proposes a direct approach to Kilian--Lewis style counterfactual analysis in structural VAR models. The proposed approach is easy to implement, and the procedure of... -
Interpretation of point forecasts with unknown directive (replication data)
Point forecasts can be interpreted as functionals (i.e., point summaries) of predictive distributions. We extend methodology for the identification of the functional based on... -
Does global inflation help forecast inflation in industrialized countries? (r...
Ciccarelli and Mojon (CM; Review of Economics and Statistics, 2010, 92(3), 524-535) propose an inflation forecasting model incorporating a global inflation factor and show that... -
Do contractionary monetary policy shocks expand shadow banking? (replication ...
Using VAR models for the USA, we find that a contractionary monetary policy shock has a persistent negative impact on the level of commercial bank assets, but increases the... -
Weak and Strong Cross-Sectional Dependence: A Panel Data Analysis of Internat...
This paper provides an econometric examination of technological knowledge spillovers among countries by focusing on the issue of error cross-sectional dependence, particularly... -
Tests of Predictive Ability for Vector Autoregressions Used for Conditional F...
Many forecasts are conditional in nature. For example, a number of central banks routinely report forecasts conditional on particular paths of policy instruments. Even though... -
Growth Determinants Revisited Using Limited-Information Bayesian Model Averag...
We revisit the growth empirics debate using a novel limited-information Bayesian model averaging framework in short T panels that addresses model uncertainty, dynamics, and... -
Refining Stylized Facts from Factor Models of Inflation (replication data)
Factor models of disaggregate inflation indices suggest that sectoral shocks generate the bulk of sectoral inflation variance, but no persistence. Aggregate shocks, by contrast,... -
Anticipating Long-Term Stock Market Volatility (replication data)
We investigate the relationship between long-term US stock market risks and the macroeconomic environment using a two-component GARCH-MIDAS model. Our results show that... -
Macroeconomic Forecasting Performance under Alternative Specifications of Tim...
This paper compares alternative models of time-varying volatility on the basis of the accuracy of real-time point and density forecasts of key macroeconomic time series for the... -
Finding Sensitivity to Scope in Nonmarket Valuation (replication data)
Data limitations frequently prevent using actual consumer behavior in determining natural resource values, so stated preference methods are used. Whether value estimates show... -
Bayesian VARs: Specification Choices and Forecast Accuracy (replication data)
In this paper we discuss how the point and density forecasting performance of Bayesian vector autoregressions (BVARs) is affected by a number of specification choices. We adopt... -
Econometric Regime Shifts and the US Subprime Bubble (replication data)
Using aggregate quarterly data for the period 1975:Q1-2010:Q4, I find that the US housing market changed from a stable regime with prices determined by fundamentals, to a highly... -
IDENTIFICATION ISSUES IN LIMITED‐INFORMATION BAYESIAN ANALYSIS OF STRUCTURAL ...
The likelihood of the parameters in structural macroeconomic models typically has non-identification regions over which it is constant. When sufficiently diffuse priors are... -
DISENTANGLING DEMAND AND SUPPLY SHOCKS IN THE CRUDE OIL MARKET: HOW TO CHECK ...
Sign restrictions have become increasingly popular for identifying shocks in structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) models. So far there are no techniques for validating the... -
TESTS OF EQUAL FORECAST ACCURACY FOR OVERLAPPING MODELS (replication data)
This paper examines the asymptotic and finite-sample properties of tests of equal forecast accuracy when the models being compared are overlapping in the sense of Vuong... -
POOLING VERSUS MODEL SELECTION FOR NOWCASTING GDP WITH MANY PREDICTORS: EMPIR...
This paper discusses pooling versus model selection for nowcasting with large datasets in the presence of model uncertainty. In practice, nowcasting a low-frequency variable... -
THE GROWTH AFTERMATH OF NATURAL DISASTERS (replication data)
This paper traces the yearly response of gross domestic product growth-both aggregated and disaggregated into its agricultural and non-agricultural components-to four types of... -
HOW PUZZLING IS THE PPP PUZZLE? AN ALTERNATIVE HALF-LIFE MEASURE OF CONVERGEN...
Evidence of lengthy half-lives for real exchange rates in the presence of a high degree of exchange rate volatility has been considered as one of the most puzzling empirical... -
CARROT AND STICK: HOW RE-EMPLOYMENT BONUSES AND BENEFIT SANCTIONS AFFECT EXIT...
To increase the exit from welfare, benefit recipients in the municipality of Rotterdam were exposed to various financial incentives. Once their benefit spell exceeded one year,...
