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Spotting the Danger Zone: Forecasting Financial Crises With Classification Tr...
This paper introduces classification tree ensembles (CTEs) to the banking crisis forecasting literature. I show that CTEs substantially improve out-of-sample forecasting... -
Bubbles and Crises: The Role of House Prices and Credit (replication data)
This paper utilizes quarterly panel data for 20 OECD countries over the period 1975:Q1-2014:Q2 to explore the importance of house prices and credit in affecting the likelihood... -
Bayesian Graphical Models for STructural Vector Autoregressive Processes (rep...
This paper proposes a Bayesian, graph-based approach to identification in vector autoregressive (VAR) models. In our Bayesian graphical VAR (BGVAR) model, the contemporaneous...