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The Contribution of Structural Break Models to Forecasting Macroeconomic Seri...
This paper compares the forecasting performance of models that have been proposed for forecasting in the presence of structural breaks. They differ in their treatment of the... -
Partially overlapping time series: a new model for volatility dynamics in com...
In commodity futures markets, contracts with various delivery dates trade simultaneously. Applied researchers typically discard the majority of the data and form a single time... -
Monitoring structural change in dynamic econometric models (replication data)
The classical approach to testing for structural change employs retrospective tests using a historical data set of a given length. Here we consider a wide array of... -
On detrending and cyclical asymmetry (replication data)
This paper considers the issue of testing for symmetry of the business cycle. It is demonstrated that findings of symmetry should be interpreted with caution since tests tend to... -
Time irreversibility and EGARCH effects in US stock index returns (replicatio...
In this paper we suggest using a modified version of the time reversibility (TR) test of Chen, Chou and Kuan (2000) as a complementary diagnostic test for time series models.... -
Censored latent effects autoregression, with an application to US unemploymen...
A model is proposed to describe observed asymmetries in postwar unemployment time series data. We assume that recession periods, when unemployment increases rapidly, correspond... -
Modelling the trend and seasonals within an AIDS model of the demand for alco...
The argument that is put forward in this paper is that failure to represent stochastic trend and stochastic seasonality in an AIDS model leads to a misspecified and possibly... -
Trend-stationary GNP: evidence from a new exact pointwise most powerful invar...
There has been a substantial debate whether GNP has a unit root. However, statistical tests have had little success in distinguishing between unit-root and trend-reverting... -
Descriptive econometrics for non-stationary time series with empirical illust...
Recent work by the author on methods of spatial density analysis for time series data with stochastic trends is reviewed. The methods are extended to include processes with... -
Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships (replication...
This paper develops a new approach to the problem of testing the existence of a level relationship between a dependent variable and a set of regressors, when it is not known... -
Another look at Swedish business cycles, 1861-1988 (replication data)
The linearity of nine long Swedish macroeconomic time series, whose business cycle properties were discussed by Englund, Persson, and Svensson (1992), is tested and rejected for... -
The error structure of time series cross-section hedonic models with sporadic...
When estimating hedonic models of housing prices, the use of time series cross-section repeat sales data can provide improvements in estimator efficiency and correct for... -
Detecting periodically collapsing bubbles: a Markov-switching unit root test ...
This paper addresses the problem of testing for the presence of a stochastic bubble in a time series in the case that the bubble is periodically collapsing so that the asset... -
The time-varying behaviour of real interest rates: a re-evaluation of the rec...
A time-varying parameter model with Markov-switching conditional heteroscedasticity is employed to investigate two sources of shifts in real interest rates: (1) shifts in the... -
Unit roots in the presence of abrupt governmental interventions with an appli...
This paper considers econometric issues related to time-series data that have been subject to abrupt governmental interventions. The motivating example for this study is the... -
Substitution, risk aversion, taste shocks and equity premia (replication data)
This paper gauges the relative contribution of risk aversion, inter-temporal substitution and taste shocks on postwar monthly US equity premia. The time-varying consumption,... -
Unemployment persistence: does the size of the shock matter? (replication data)
One of the stylized facts of unemployment is that shifts in its mean rate between decades and half-decades account for most of its variance. In this paper, we use a statistical... -
Bayesian inference for periodic regime-switching models (replication data)
We present a general class of nonlinear time-series Markov regime-switching models for seasonal data which may exhibit periodic features in the hidden Markov process as well as... -
Stochastic trends, deterministic trends, and business cycle turning points (r...
This study examines the relationship between specifications for long-run output patterns and specifications for business cycle dynamics. In an application to US GDP, it is found... -
Is there a unit root in the inflation rate? Evidence from sequential break an...
Using sequential trend break and panel data models, we investigate the unit root hypothesis for the inflation rates of thirteen OECD countries. With individual country tests, we...
