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Tests of Predictive Ability for Vector Autoregressions Used for Conditional F...
Many forecasts are conditional in nature. For example, a number of central banks routinely report forecasts conditional on particular paths of policy instruments. Even though... -
An evaluation of the forecasts of the federal reserve: a pooled approach (rep...
The Federal Reserve Greenbook forecasts of real GDP, inflation and unemployment are analysed for the period 1974-1997. We consider whether these forecasts exhibit systematic... -
Structural break threshold VARs for predicting US recessions using the spread...
This paper proposes a model to predict recessions that accounts for non-linearity and a structural break when the spread between long- and short-term interest rates is the... -
Evaluating interval forecasts of high-frequency financial data (replication d...
A number of methods of evaluating the validity of interval forecasts of financial data are analysed, and illustrated using intraday FTSE100 index futures returns. Some existing... -
Forecasting in cointegrated systems (replication data)
We consider the implications for forecast accuracy of imposing unit roots and cointegrating restrictions in linear systems of I(1) variables in levels, differences, and...
