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ECB Monetary Policy Surprises: Identification Through Cojumps in Interest Rat...
This paper proposes a new econometric approach to disentangle two distinct response patterns of the yield curve to monetary policy announcements. Based on cojumps in intraday... -
The Measurement and Behavior of Uncertainty: Evidence from the ECB Survey of ...
We examine matched point and density forecasts of output growth, inflation and unemployment from the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters. We construct measures of uncertainty... -
Has the Euro-Mediterranean Partnership Affected Mediterranean Business Cycles...
We date turning points of the reference cycle for 19 Mediterranean countries and analyze their structure and interdependencies. Fluctuations are volatile and not highly... -
A TIP OF THE ICEBERG? THE PROBABILITY OF CATCHING CARTELS (replication data)
Reliable estimates of crime detection probabilities could help in designing better sanctions and improve our understanding of the efficiency of law enforcement. For cartels, we... -
MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATION OF FACTOR MODELS ON DATASETS WITH ARBITRARY PAT...
In this paper we modify the expectation maximization algorithm in order to estimate the parameters of the dynamic factor model on a dataset with an arbitrary pattern of missing... -
MULTIVARIATE VOLATILITY MODELING OF ELECTRICITY FUTURES (replication data)
We model the dynamic volatility and correlation structure of electricity futures of the European Energy Exchange index. We use a new multiplicative dynamic conditional... -
Stocks, bonds, money markets and exchange rates: measuring international fina...
Understanding the complexity of the financial transmission process across various assets-domestically as well as within and across asset classes-requires the simultaneous... -
Fertility and female employment dynamics in Europe: the effect of using alter...
We investigate the direct and long-run effects of fertility on employment in Europe, estimating dynamic models of labor supply under different assumptions regarding the... -
Comovements and heterogeneity in the euro area analyzed in a non-stationary d...
This paper establishes stylized facts on comovements and heterogeneity of individual euro area countries' output and price developments in the past two decades. For this... -
Assessing the prudence of economic forecasts in the EU (replication data)
We estimate the EU Commission loss preferences for major economic forecasts of 12 Member States. Based on a recently proposed method by Elliott, Komunjer and Timmermann (2005)... -
Gravity models of intra-EU trade: application of the CCEP-HT estimation in he...
We follow recent developments of panel data studies and allow for the existence of both observed and unobserved common factors where their individual responses are allowed to be... -
Exploring the international linkages of the euro area: a global VAR analysis ...
This paper presents a quarterly global model combining individual country vector error-correcting models in which the domestic variables are related to the country-specific... -
The transmission mechanism in a changing world (replication data)
The paper aims to identify those factors that cause changes in the speed and strength of the international transmission of output shocks from the USA to specified European... -
Empirical evidence of income dynamics across EU regions (replication data)
This paper analyses the distribution of purchasing power standardized per capita income across EU-12 regions between 1977 and 1996. Dispersion of incomes between regions is... -
Tests of seasonal integration and cointegration in multivariate unobserved co...
This paper considers tests of seasonal integration and cointegration for multivariate unobserved component models. First, the locally best invariant (LBI) test of the null... -
Principal components at work: the empirical analysis of monetary policy with ...
The empirical analysis of monetary policy requires the construction of instruments for future expected inflation. Dynamic factor models have been applied rather successfully to... -
Comparing shocks and frictions in US and euro area business cycles: a Bayesia...
This paper estimates a DSGE model with many types of shocks and frictions for both the US and the euro area economy over a common sample period (1974-2002). The structural... -
Convergence in the trends and cycles of Euro-zone income (replication data)
Multivariate unobserved components (structural) time series models are fitted to annual post-war observations on real income per capita in countries in the Euro-zone. The aim is... -
Short-term monitoring of fiscal policy discipline (replication data)
Under the Maastricht Treaty and the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP), European Union (EU) Member States commit themselves to avoid excessive deficits over 3% of GDP and to pursue... -
The demand for M3 in the euro area (replication data)
In this paper, an empirically stable money demand model for M3 in the euro area is constructed. Starting with a multivariate system, three cointegrating relationships with...
