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Market fundamentals versus rational bubbles in stock prices: a Bayesian persp...
Using Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo methods, we decompose the log price-dividend ratio into a market fundamentals component and a bubble component. The market fundamentals... -
Permanent vs transitory components and economic fundamentals (replication data)
Any non-stationary series can be decomposed into permanent (or trend) and transitory (or cycle) components. Typically some atheoretic pre-filtering procedure is applied to... -
The effects of the gender of children on expenditure patterns in rural China:...
We analyse expenditure patterns for rural China, focusing on differences between families with boys and girls. The sample includes more than 5000 nuclear families from 19... -
Understanding the Fisher equation (replication data)
It is argued that univariate long memory estimates based on ex post data tend to underestimate the persistence of ex ante variables (and, hence, that of the ex post variables... -
Learning about heterogeneity in returns to schooling (replication data)
Using data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY) we introduce and estimate various Bayesian hierarchical models that investigate the nature of unobserved... -
Health insurance and savings over the life cycle—a semiparametric smooth coef...
Individuals save for future uncertain health care expenses. This is less efficient than pooling health risk through insurance. The provision of comprehensive health insurance... -
On Markov error-correction models, with an application to stock prices and di...
This paper considers Markov error-correction (MEC) models in which deviations from the long-run equilibrium are characterized by different rates of adjustment. To motivate our... -
Temporary layoffs and split population models (replication data)
This paper develops and estimates a split population model for the duration of temporary layoffs in the German labour market; the population being split according to whether a... -
Quasi-rational andex ante price expectations in commodity supply models: an e...
A statistically optimal inference about agents' ex ante price expectations within the US broiler market is derived using futures prices of related commodities along with a... -
A finite-sample hierarchical analysis of wage variation across public high sc...
Using data from both the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY) and High School and Beyond (HSB), we investigate if public high schools differ in the production of... -
Estimation of sons' intergenerational earnings mobility in the presence of ce...
Based on intergenerational data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, I provide estimates of income mobility across generations for men. Special attention is paid to issues... -
Time-varying intercepts and equilibrium analysis: an extension of the dynamic...
Demographic effects and user costs in demand systems have usually been modelled explicitly. A more robust approach is a state space formulation of the demand system, where... -
Asymmetry in first-price auctions with affiliated private values (replication...
Collusion and heterogeneity across firms may introduce asymmetry in bidding games. A major difficulty in asymmetric auctions is that the Bayesian Nash equilibrium strategies are... -
A simple framework for analysing bull and bear markets (replication data)
Bull and bear markets are a common way of describing cycles in equity prices. To fully describe such cycles one would need to know the data generating process (DGP) for equity... -
Modelling the trend and seasonals within an AIDS model of the demand for alco...
The argument that is put forward in this paper is that failure to represent stochastic trend and stochastic seasonality in an AIDS model leads to a misspecified and possibly... -
Modelling the conditional volatility of commodity index futures as a regime s...
Commodity index futures offer a versatile tool for gaining different forms of exposure to commodity markets. Volatility is a critical input in many of these applications. This... -
An empirical comparison of flexible demand system functional forms (replicati...
This paper compares the performance of eight frequently used flexible forms that are either (1) locally flexible, (2) effectively globally regular, or (3) asymptotically... -
Testing the random walk hypothesis for real exchange rates (replication data)
This paper tests the random walk hypothesis for the log-differenced monthly US real exchange rates versus some major currencies. The tests we use are variance ratio test,... -
The time-varying behaviour of real interest rates: a re-evaluation of the rec...
A time-varying parameter model with Markov-switching conditional heteroscedasticity is employed to investigate two sources of shifts in real interest rates: (1) shifts in the... -
An analysis of technology, productivity, and regulatory distortion in the int...
The purpose of this paper is to provide the first comprehensive firm level analysis of cost structures and production in the interstate pipeline industry during the transition...
