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The Effectiveness of Non-Standard Monetary Policy Measures: Evidence from Sur...
We assess professional forecasters' perceptions of the effects of the unconventional monetary policy measures announced by the US Federal Reserve after the collapse of Lehman... -
The Measurement and Characteristics of Professional Forecasters' Uncertainty ...
Several statistical issues that arise in the construction and interpretation of measures of uncertainty from forecast surveys that include probability questions are considered,... -
EXCHANGE RATE FUNDAMENTALS, FORECASTING, AND SPECULATION: BAYESIAN MODELS IN ...
Although speculative activity is central to black markets for currency, the out-of-sample performance of structural models in those settings is unknown. We substantially update... -
Market fundamentals versus rational bubbles in stock prices: a Bayesian persp...
Using Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo methods, we decompose the log price-dividend ratio into a market fundamentals component and a bubble component. The market fundamentals...
