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The benefits of forecasting inflation with machine learning: New evidence (re...
This is the replication package for "The benefits of forecasting inflation with machine learning: New evidence" by A. Naghi, E. O'Neill, and M. Zaharieva, Journal of Applied... -
Oil prices, gasoline prices, and inflation expectations (replication data)
It has long been suspected, given the salience of gasoline prices, that fluctuations in gasoline prices shift households' 1-year inflation expectations. Assessing this view... -
Large devaluations and inflation inequality: Replicating Cravino and Levchenk...
In the aftermath of large devaluations, prices of tradable goods/lower-priced varieties increase significantly more than the prices of nontradables/higher-priced varieties.... -
On the Low-Frequency Relationship Between Public Deficits and Inflation (repl...
We estimate the low-frequency relationship between fiscal deficits and inflation and pay special attention to its potential time variation by estimating a time-varying vector... -
Refining Stylized Facts from Factor Models of Inflation (replication data)
Factor models of disaggregate inflation indices suggest that sectoral shocks generate the bulk of sectoral inflation variance, but no persistence. Aggregate shocks, by contrast,... -
CONSTRUCTING OPTIMAL DENSITY FORECASTS FROM POINT FORECAST COMBINATIONS (repl...
Decision makers often observe point forecasts of the same variable computed, for instance, by commercial banks, IMF and the World Bank, but the econometric models used by such... -
Identifying the new Keynesian Phillips curve (replication data)
Phillips curves are central to discussions of inflation dynamics and monetary policy. The hybrid new Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) describes how past inflation, expected... -
Modelling multi-period inflation uncertainty using a panel of density forecas...
This paper examines the determinants of inflation forecast uncertainty using a panel of density forecasts from the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF). Based on a dynamic... -
Disaggregate evidence on the persistence of consumer price inflation (replica...
This paper uses disaggregate inflation data spanning all of consumption to examine: (i) the persistence of disaggregate inflation relative to aggregate inflation; (ii) the... -
The asymmetric effects of uncertainty on inflation and output growth (replica...
We study the effects of growth volatility and inflation volatility on average rates of output growth and inflation for post-war US data. Our results suggest that increased... -
Can inflation data improve the real-time reliability of output gap estimates?...
Potential output plays a central role in monetary policy and short-term macroeconomic policy making. Yet, characterizing the output gap involves a trend-cycle decomposition, and... -
Small-system modelling of real wages, inflation, unemployment and output per ...
The relationships between real wages, output per capita, inflation and unemployment in Italy between 1970 and 1994 are modelled using a cointegrated vector autoregression. There... -
Modelling UK inflation, 1875-1991 (replication data)
UK inflation has varied greatly in response to many economic policy and exchange-rate regime shifts, two world wars and two oil crises, as well as legislative and technological... -
Output and inflation in the long run (replication data)
Cross-country regressions explaining output growth often obtain a negative effect from inflation. However, that result is not robust, due to the selection of countries in... -
An I(2) analysis of inflation and the markup (replication data)
An I(2) analysis of Australian inflation and the markup is undertaken within an imperfect competition model. It is found that the levels of prices and costs are best... -
The effects of real and nominal uncertainty on inflation and output growth: s...
In this paper we use GARCH-M methods to test four hypotheses about the effects of real and nominal uncertainty on average inflation and output growth in the United States from... -
Optimal univariate inflation forecasting with symmetric stable shocks (replic...
Monthly inflation in the United States indicates non-normality in the form of either occasional big shocks or marked changes in the level of the series. We develop a univariate... -
Are financial spreads useful indicators of future inflation and output growth...
This paper seeks to address the policy issue of the usefulness of financial spreads as indicators of future inflation and output growth in the countries of the European Union,... -
Analysing inflation by the fractionally integrated ARFIMA-GARCH model (replic...
This paper considers the application of long-memory processes to describing inflation for ten countries. We implement a new procedure to obtain approximate maximum likelihood...
