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Disaggregate evidence on the persistence of consumer price inflation (replica...
This paper uses disaggregate inflation data spanning all of consumption to examine: (i) the persistence of disaggregate inflation relative to aggregate inflation; (ii) the... -
Structural break threshold VARs for predicting US recessions using the spread...
This paper proposes a model to predict recessions that accounts for non-linearity and a structural break when the spread between long- and short-term interest rates is the... -
Timing structural change: a conditional probabilistic approach (replication d...
We propose a strategy for assessing structural stability in time-series frameworks when potential change dates are unknown. Existing stability tests are effective in detecting...
