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Nonlinear dynamics of interest rate and inflation (replication data)
According to several empirical studies US inflation and nominal interest rates as well as the real interest rate can be described as unit root processes. These results imply... -
Validating multiple structural change models-a case study (replication data)
In a recent article, Bai and Perron (2003, Journal of Applied Econometrics) present a comprehensive discussion of computational aspects of multiple structural change models... -
Partially overlapping time series: a new model for volatility dynamics in com...
In commodity futures markets, contracts with various delivery dates trade simultaneously. Applied researchers typically discard the majority of the data and form a single time... -
Monitoring structural change in dynamic econometric models (replication data)
The classical approach to testing for structural change employs retrospective tests using a historical data set of a given length. Here we consider a wide array of... -
Why were changes in the federal funds rate smaller in the 1990s? (replication...
We identify two major changes in the dynamics of the federal funds rate in the 1990s. We model the desired rate in a two-regime setting, one when the Fed makes no change and the... -
More powerful panel data unit root tests with an application to mean reversio...
Unit root tests, seeking mean or trend reversion, are frequently applied to panel data. We show that more powerful variants of commonly applied tests are readily available.... -
On Markov error-correction models, with an application to stock prices and di...
This paper considers Markov error-correction (MEC) models in which deviations from the long-run equilibrium are characterized by different rates of adjustment. To motivate our... -
Party loyalty as habit formation (replication data)
In most democracies, at least two out of any three individuals vote for the same party in sequential elections. This paper presents a model in which vote-persistence is partly... -
Time-varying intercepts and equilibrium analysis: an extension of the dynamic...
Demographic effects and user costs in demand systems have usually been modelled explicitly. A more robust approach is a state space formulation of the demand system, where... -
Asymmetry in first-price auctions with affiliated private values (replication...
Collusion and heterogeneity across firms may introduce asymmetry in bidding games. A major difficulty in asymmetric auctions is that the Bayesian Nash equilibrium strategies are... -
A simple framework for analysing bull and bear markets (replication data)
Bull and bear markets are a common way of describing cycles in equity prices. To fully describe such cycles one would need to know the data generating process (DGP) for equity... -
The stochastic volatility in mean model: empirical evidence from internationa...
In this paper we present an exact maximum likelihood treatment for the estimation of a Stochastic Volatility in Mean (SVM) model based on Monte Carlo simulation methods. The SVM... -
Divergence in alternative Hicksian welfare measures: the case of revealed pre...
This paper investigates the divergence between the two Hicksian welfare measures of non-traded amenity improvement associated with housing. First, the Hicksian surplus measures... -
Bridging the gap between the distribution of realized (ECU) volatility and AR...
This paper bridges the gap between traditional ARCH modelling and recent advances on realized volatilities. Based on a ten-year sample of five-minute returns for the ECU basket... -
Time irreversibility and EGARCH effects in US stock index returns (replicatio...
In this paper we suggest using a modified version of the time reversibility (TR) test of Chen, Chou and Kuan (2000) as a complementary diagnostic test for time series models.... -
Estimating quadratic variation using realized variance (replication data)
This paper looks at some recent work on estimating quadratic variation using realized variance (RV)?that is, sums of M squared returns. This econometrics has been motivated by... -
Censored latent effects autoregression, with an application to US unemploymen...
A model is proposed to describe observed asymmetries in postwar unemployment time series data. We assume that recession periods, when unemployment increases rapidly, correspond... -
Crack spread hedging: accounting for time-varying volatility spillovers in th...
Crude oil, heating oil, and unleaded gasoline futures contracts are simultaneously analysed for their effectiveness in reducing price volatility for an energy trader. A... -
Stochastic frontier models with random coefficients (replication data)
The paper proposes a stochastic frontier model with random coefficients to separate technical inefficiency from technological differences across firms, and free the frontier... -
Measuring predictability: theory and macroeconomic applications (replication ...
We propose a measure of predictability based on the ratio of the expected loss of a short-run forecast to the expected loss of a long-run forecast. This predictability measure...
