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Macroeconomic Forecasting Performance under Alternative Specifications of Tim...
This paper compares alternative models of time-varying volatility on the basis of the accuracy of real-time point and density forecasts of key macroeconomic time series for the... -
Term structure surprises: the predictive content of curvature, level, and slo...
This paper analyzes the predictive content of the term structure components level, slope, and curvature within a dynamic factor model of macroeconomic and interest rate data.... -
Combining forecast densities from VARs with uncertain instabilities (replicat...
Recursive-weight forecast combination is often found to an ineffective method of improving point forecast accuracy in the presence of uncertain instabilities. We examine the... -
Forecast evaluation of small nested model sets (replication data)
We propose two new procedures for comparing the mean squared prediction error (MSPE) of a benchmark model to the MSPEs of a small set of alternative models that nest the... -
Inter-industrial Relations and Sectoral Employment Development in German Regi...
This paper analyses the impact of cluster structures on employment development in Germany according to the hypothesis of Porter (1998). It develops a new way of measuring the...
