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How well do Markov switching models describe actual business cycles? The case...
The objective of this paper is to evaluate the effectiveness of using a Markov switching model to measure the synchronization of business cycles. We use a Bayesian, Gibbs... -
Comparing shocks and frictions in US and euro area business cycles: a Bayesia...
This paper estimates a DSGE model with many types of shocks and frictions for both the US and the euro area economy over a common sample period (1974-2002). The structural... -
What caused the early millennium slowdown? Evidence based on vector autoregre...
This paper uses a simple VAR for the USA and Euro area to analyse the underlying shocks of the early millennium slowdown, i.e. supply, demand, monetary policy and oil price... -
Business and default cycles for credit risk (replication data)
Various economic theories are available to explain the existence of credit and default cycles. There remains empirical ambiguity, however, as to whether these cycles coincide.... -
Nonlinearity and the permanent effects of recessions (replication data)
This paper presents a new nonlinear time series model that captures a post-recession bounce-back in the level of aggregate output. While a number of studies have examined this... -
Comparing SVARs and SEMs: two models of the UK economy (replication data)
The structural vector autoregression (SVAR) and simultaneous equation macroeconometric model (SEM) styles of empirical macroeconomic modelling are compared and contrasted, with... -
A suggested framework for classifying the modes of cycle research (replicatio...
The paper argues that it is important to realize that the concept of a cycle has rarely been precisely articulated in empirical work and that often researchers are using very... -
Convergence in the trends and cycles of Euro-zone income (replication data)
Multivariate unobserved components (structural) time series models are fitted to annual post-war observations on real income per capita in countries in the Euro-zone. The aim is... -
The transmission of US shocks to Latin America (replication data)
I study whether and how US shocks are transmitted to eight Latin American countries. US shocks are identified using sign restrictions and treated as exogenous with respect to...
