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TIME-VARYING DYNAMICS OF THE REAL EXCHANGE RATE: AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS (repli...
We use a time-varying structural vector autoregression to investigate evolving dynamics of the real exchange rate for the UK, euro area and Canada. We show that demand and... -
POOLING VERSUS MODEL SELECTION FOR NOWCASTING GDP WITH MANY PREDICTORS: EMPIR...
This paper discusses pooling versus model selection for nowcasting with large datasets in the presence of model uncertainty. In practice, nowcasting a low-frequency variable... -
THE GROWTH AFTERMATH OF NATURAL DISASTERS (replication data)
This paper traces the yearly response of gross domestic product growth-both aggregated and disaggregated into its agricultural and non-agricultural components-to four types of... -
LONG-RUN RISKS IN THE TERM STRUCTURE OF INTEREST RATES: ESTIMATION (replicati...
This paper estimates a model in which persistent fluctuations in expected consumption growth, expected inflation, and their time-varying volatility determine asset price... -
REAL-TIME FORECASTING OF INFLATION AND OUTPUT GROWTH WITH AUTOREGRESSIVE MODE...
We examine how the accuracy of real-time forecasts from models that include autoregressive terms can be improved by estimating the models on lightly revised data instead of... -
HOW PUZZLING IS THE PPP PUZZLE? AN ALTERNATIVE HALF-LIFE MEASURE OF CONVERGEN...
Evidence of lengthy half-lives for real exchange rates in the presence of a high degree of exchange rate volatility has been considered as one of the most puzzling empirical... -
EURO CORPORATE BOND RISK FACTORS (replication data)
This paper investigates the determinants of credit spread changes in euro-denominated bonds. We adopt a factor model framework, inspired by the credit risk structural approach,... -
CARROT AND STICK: HOW RE-EMPLOYMENT BONUSES AND BENEFIT SANCTIONS AFFECT EXIT...
To increase the exit from welfare, benefit recipients in the municipality of Rotterdam were exposed to various financial incentives. Once their benefit spell exceeded one year,... -
DURATION DEPENDENCE VERSUS UNOBSERVED HETEROGENEITY IN TREATMENT EFFECTS: SWE...
The effect of a treatment on the hazard rate of a duration outcome may depend on the elapsed time since treatment. In addition, treatment effects may be heterogeneous across... -
VAR FORECASTING USING BAYESIAN VARIABLE SELECTION (replication data)
This paper develops methods for automatic selection of variables in Bayesian vector autoregressions (VARs) using the Gibbs sampler. In particular, I provide computationally... -
Forecasting with Medium and Large Bayesian VARS (replication data)
This paper is motivated by the recent interest in the use of Bayesian VARs for forecasting, even in cases where the number of dependent variables is large. In such cases factor... -
MEASURING THE EFFECT OF NAPSTER ON RECORDED MUSIC SALES: DIFFERENCE-IN-DIFFER...
This paper measures the effect of Napster on record sales. I treat the introduction of Napster as a technological event that only Internet users experienced, and use a... -
MULTIVARIATE METHODS FOR MONITORING STRUCTURAL CHANGE (replication data)
Detection of structural change is a critical empirical activity, but continuous monitoring for changes in real time raises well-known econometric issues that have been explored... -
WAS THE GOLD STANDARD REALLY DESTABILIZING? (replication data)
This paper investigates the extent to which the high macroeconomic volatility experienced in the classical Gold Standard era of US history can be attributed to the monetary... -
Did China diversify its foreign reserves? (replication data)
This paper takes a novel approach to detect the latent currency portfolio of Chinese foreign exchange reserves and the underlying portfolio management strategies during 2000 and... -
Estimation of dynamic panel data models with sample selection (replication data)
We propose a new method for estimating dynamic panel data models with selection. The method uses backward substitution for the lagged dependent variable, which leads to an... -
Stochastic search variable selection in vector error correction models with a...
This paper develops methods for stochastic search variable selection (currently popular with regression and vector autoregressive models) for vector error correction models... -
Investment decisions in manufacturing: assessing the effects of real oil pric...
We investigate the effects of real oil prices and their uncertainty on investment decisions. Making use of plant-level data, we estimate dynamic, discrete-choice models that... -
Panel data estimates of the production function and product and labor market ...
Consistent with two models of imperfect competition in the labor market-the efficient bargaining model and the monopsony model-we provide two extensions of a microeconomic... -
Narrow and scientific replication of ‘The slave trade and the origins of mist...
Nunn and Wantchekon (2011) argue that slave trades led to a culture of mistrust in Africa. They regress self-reported trust from the 2005 Afrobarometer surveys on...
