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What Drives Oil Prices? Emerging Versus Developed Economies (replication data)
We explore the role of demand from emerging and developed economies as drivers of the real price of oil. Using a FAVAR model that identifies shocks from different regions of the... -
Macroeconomic Forecasting Performance under Alternative Specifications of Tim...
This paper compares alternative models of time-varying volatility on the basis of the accuracy of real-time point and density forecasts of key macroeconomic time series for the... -
The Contribution of Structural Break Models to Forecasting Macroeconomic Seri...
This paper compares the forecasting performance of models that have been proposed for forecasting in the presence of structural breaks. They differ in their treatment of the... -
Unraveling the Relationship Between Presidential Approval and the Economy: A ...
Empirical studies analyzing the determinants of US presidential popularity have delivered quite inconclusive results concerning the role of economic variables by assuming linear... -
Identification and Estimation of Engel Curves with Endogenous and Unobserved ...
When dealing with the estimation of Engel curves, measurement errors in expenditure data and simultaneity are likely sources of endogeneity. In this paper we study... -
Finding Sensitivity to Scope in Nonmarket Valuation (replication data)
Data limitations frequently prevent using actual consumer behavior in determining natural resource values, so stated preference methods are used. Whether value estimates show... -
Cost and Preference Heterogeneity in Risky Financial Markets (replication data)
This paper estimates the magnitude of participation costs and preference parameters exploiting information on households? participation decisions in the equities market. A... -
Using OLS to Estimate and Test for Structural Changes in Models with Endogeno...
We consider the problem of estimating and testing for multiple breaks in a single-equation framework with regressors that are endogenous, i.e. correlated with the errors. We... -
Econometric Regime Shifts and the US Subprime Bubble (replication data)
Using aggregate quarterly data for the period 1975:Q1-2010:Q4, I find that the US housing market changed from a stable regime with prices determined by fundamentals, to a highly... -
IDENTIFICATION ISSUES IN LIMITED‐INFORMATION BAYESIAN ANALYSIS OF STRUCTURAL ...
The likelihood of the parameters in structural macroeconomic models typically has non-identification regions over which it is constant. When sufficiently diffuse priors are... -
POSTERIOR‐PREDICTIVE EVIDENCE ON US INFLATION USING EXTENDED NEW KEYNESIAN PH...
Changing time series properties of US inflation and economic activity, measured as marginal costs, are modeled within a set of extended New Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC)... -
IDENTIFYING CAUSAL MECHANISMS (PRIMARILY) BASED ON INVERSE PROBABILITY WEIGHT...
This paper demonstrates the identification of causal mechanisms of a binary treatment under selection on observables, (primarily) based on inverse probability weighting; i.e. we... -
HOW BELIEFS ABOUT HIV STATUS AFFECT RISKY BEHAVIORS: EVIDENCE FROM MALAWI (re...
This paper examines how beliefs about own HIV status affect decisions to engage in risky sexual behavior, as measured by having extramarital sex and/or multiple sex partners.... -
MULTIPLE TESTING AND HETEROGENEOUS TREATMENT EFFECTS: RE-EVALUATING THE EFFEC...
The effect of a program or treatment may vary according to observed characteristics. In such a setting, it may not only be of interest to determine whether the program or... -
IS ECONOMIC RECOVERY A MYTH? ROBUST ESTIMATION OF IMPULSE RESPONSES (replicat...
We estimate the impulse response function (IRF) of GDP to a banking crisis using an extension of the local projections method. We demonstrate that, though robust to... -
STRATEGIC ASSET ALLOCATION FOR LONG-TERM INVESTORS: PARAMETER UNCERTAINTY AND...
We study the effect of parameter uncertainty on the long-run risk for three asset classes: stocks, bills and bonds. Using a Bayesian vector autoregression with an uninformative... -
HOW SENSITIVE ARE RETIREMENT DECISIONS TO FINANCIAL INCENTIVES? A STATED PREF...
We study the effects of financial incentives on retirement decisions using stated preference data. Dutch survey respondents were given hypothetical retirement scenarios... -
TIME VARIATION IN THE DYNAMICS OF WORKER FLOWS: EVIDENCE FROM NORTH AMERICA A...
Vector autoregressive methods have been used to model the interrelationships between job vacancy rates, job separation rates and job-finding rates using tools such as impulse... -
EXPLORING ALL VAR ORDERINGS FOR CALCULATING SPILLOVERS? YES, WE CAN!-A NOTE O...
Diebold and Yilmaz (Economic Journal 2009; 119; 158-171) introduce the spillover index to measure linkages between international financial markets. As their index depends on the... -
ARE THE CURRENT ACCOUNT IMBALANCES BETWEEN EMU COUNTRIES SUSTAINABLE? EVIDENC...
Using parametric and non-parametric estimation techniques, we analyze the sustainability of the recently growing current account imbalances in the euro area and test whether the...
