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Combining density forecasts using focused scoring rules (replication data)
We investigate the added value of combining density forecasts focused on a specific region of support. We develop forecast combination schemes that assign weights to individual... -
Unobserved selection heterogeneity and the gender wage gap (replication data)
Selection correction methods usually make assumptions about selection itself. In the case of gender wage gap estimation, those assumptions are especially tenuous because of high... -
Nonparametric methods and local-time-based estimation for dynamic power law d...
This paper introduces nonparametric econometric methods that characterize general power law distributions under basic stability conditions. These methods extend the literature... -
Identifying relevant and irrelevant variables in sparse factor models (replic...
This paper considers factor estimation from heterogeneous data, where some of the variables-the relevant ones-are informative for estimating the factors, and others-the... -
Efficient estimation of factor models with time and cross-sectional dependenc...
This paper studies the efficient estimation of large-dimensional factor models with both time and cross-sectional dependence assuming (N,T) separability of the covariance... -
Model selection with estimated factors and idiosyncratic components (replicat...
This paper provides consistent information criteria for the selection of forecasting models that use a subset of both the idiosyncratic and common factor components of a big... -
Dynamic spatial autoregressive models with autoregressive and heteroskedastic...
We propose a new class of models specifically tailored for spatiotemporal data analysis. To this end, we generalize the spatial autoregressive model with autoregressive and... -
Structural FECM: Cointegration in large‐scale structural FAVAR models (replic...
Starting from the dynamic factor model for nonstationary data we derive the factor-augmented error correction model (FECM) and its moving-average representation. The latter is... -
The cycle of violence in the Second Intifada: Causality in nonlinear vector a...
We contest Jaeger and Paserman's claim (Jaeger and Paserman , 2008. The cycle of violence? An empirical analysis of fatalities in the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. American... -
Anchoring the yield curve using survey expectations (replication data)
The dynamic behavior of the term structure of interest rates is difficult to replicate with models, and even models with a proven track record of empirical performance have... -
The Robust Relationship Between US Food Aid and Civil Conflict (replication d...
Humanitarian aid has long been considered an important means to reduce hunger and suffering in developing countries. A recent finding by Nunn and Qian (US food aid and civil... -
Out-of-Sample Return Predictability: A Quantile Combination Approach (replica...
This paper develops a novel forecasting method that minimizes the effects of weak predictors and estimation errors on the accuracy of equity premium forecasts. The proposed... -
On the Stability of the Excess Sensitivity of Aggregate Consumption Growth in...
This paper investigates whether there is time variation in the excess sensitivity of aggregate consumption growth to anticipated aggregate disposable income growth using... -
Granger Causality and Regime Inference in Markov Switching VAR Models with Ba...
In this paper, we derive restrictions for Granger noncausality in MS-VAR models and show under what conditions a variable does not affect the forecast of the hidden Markov... -
Spotting the Danger Zone: Forecasting Financial Crises With Classification Tr...
This paper introduces classification tree ensembles (CTEs) to the banking crisis forecasting literature. I show that CTEs substantially improve out-of-sample forecasting... -
Transitions at Different Moments in Time: A Spatial Probit Approach (replicat...
This paper adopts a spatial probit approach to explain interaction effects among cross-sectional units when the dependent variable takes the form of a binary response variable... -
Inside the Crystal Ball: New Approaches to Predicting the Gasoline Price at t...
Appropriate real-time forecasting models for the US retail price of gasoline yield substantial reductions in the mean-squared prediction error (MSPE) at horizons up to 2 years... -
Time Variation in Macro-Financial Linkages (replication data)
We analyze the contribution of credit spread, house and stock price shocks to the US economy based on a time-varying parameter vector autoregressive model. We find that the... -
Nonlinear Granger Causality: Guidelines for Multivariate Analysis (replicatio...
We propose an extension of the bivariate nonparametric Diks-Panchenko Granger non-causality test to multivariate settings. We first show that the asymptotic theory for the... -
Modelling Hospital Admission and Length of Stay by Means of Generalised Count...
For a large heterogeneous group of patients, we analyse probabilities of hospital admission and distributional properties of lengths of hospital stay conditional on individual...
